As winter approaches, COVID-19 cases are skyrocketing in Europe. The continent has seen the number of new COVID-19 cases increase by more than 55% in the past four weeks, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Faced with this rise, several countries are re-establishing health restrictions. Will Quebec follow the trend when the holidays arrive?
Daily reports seem to paint a rise in cases across the province. After a daily average of 500 cases last month, the province has recorded an average of 635 daily cases since early November.
Despite the uptrend, Quebec should not experience an outbreak like that of Europe, believes Alain Lamarre, virologist and research professor at the National Institute of Scientific Research (INRS). If an increase in cases remains possible, it will be similar to the situation observed on the other side of the ocean.
What distinguishes the European situation from ours? “In most European countries where we are seeing a significant upsurge, vaccination coverage is not optimal, such as Germany or Austria,” explains Mr. Lamarre.
Records of daily infections have indeed been broken in recent days in these two countries, where vaccination rates are quite low. About 68% of the German population is fully vaccinated, slightly more than in Austria, with 64% of the population adequately immunized.
In Quebec, 80% of the general population has received at least one dose of vaccine. More than 88% of Quebecers aged 12 and over are adequately vaccinated. Nationally, 75% of Canadians are fully immunized – and 85% of those over 12 years of age.
“Every European country has some element missing in their response to the virus. In Quebec, without saying that we are the best example, I believe that we quickly managed to offer the vaccine to the entire population and, unlike other provinces, to keep a good number of restrictive measures. »Observes Benoit Barbeau, virologist and professor in the department of biological sciences at the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM).
Vaccine coverage alone does not, however, explain the European situation, according to the two experts, who recall that several countries had relaxed health measures last summer, such as the application of the vaccine passport or the wearing of a face cover in certain places.
Stay vigilant
Despite a vaccination rate of nearly 85% of the adult population, the European wave is sweeping the Netherlands, which recently passed the 16,000 case mark in one day. This fall, the Dutch had dropped masks everywhere, and social distancing was no longer necessary.
Now that the health care system is squeezed again, with a new record of infections recorded a few days ago, the country is now starting a shock treatment to save Christmas.
In Quebec, new reductions in health rules related to COVID-19 came into force on Monday in Quebec. High school students no longer have to wear a mask in class, and Quebecers can come back to work face-to-face, since the remit of teleworking has been lifted. The Legault government also issued relaxations affecting restaurants, bars and karaoke evenings.
“This is why several voices are rising at the moment to send a message of caution. When we start to relax the measures without waiting to see the impact, it’s difficult to see which measure contributes the most to the rise in cases, ”believes Mr. Lamarre.
Have the recent reliefs come too soon? “It is indeed a somewhat risky period, according to the INRS professor. I am not against the fact that there are releases. With a high vaccination rate, the population is tired and there is a risk of erosion of adherence to measures and even generalized abandonment, and this is not what we want. “
“We have to find the right balance, that is to relax certain measures, but not to go too quickly so as not to lose control,” he adds.
The wave of the unvaccinated
In Quebec, the situation remains under control, despite the upward trend noted since the beginning of the month. And as in Europe, the increase in new cases and new hospitalizations in the province are mainly concentrated among young people and the unvaccinated.
To tackle the problem, some governments have decided to apply health measures for the unvaccinated. Austria, which has one of the lowest vaccination rates in Western Europe, is now working hard: as of Monday, unvaccinated people over 12 years old are not allowed to leave their homes except to do their shopping, sport or for medical care, under penalty of incurring a 500 euros fine. This measure would affect two million inhabitants.
Germany’s new government has said it will impose stricter rules on unvaccinated people, including requiring them to get a negative drug test before traveling on buses or trains.
Despite a 10% unimmunized population, Quebec remains in a good position not to reproduce the European scenario, believes Alain Lamarre. The upcoming vaccination of children aged 5 to 11 as well as the third doses of vaccine to vulnerable people will help to keep control over the health situation in the province, believes the professor.
People over 50 years of age actually represent the majority of new daily hospitalizations, regardless of vaccination status. Unvaccinated people remain the most affected by hospitalizations.
“Vaccine efficacy may decrease in the most vulnerable people. We know that the third dose is effective in these groups to increase the number of neutralizing antibodies, solidify immunological memory and develop longer-term memory, ”explains Mr. Lamarre.
Starting Tuesday, people aged 80 and over can schedule their appointments to get their third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. Although not mandatory, it is recommended as a preventive measure. On November 18, it will be the turn of people aged 75 and over; then, on November 23, those 70 and over will also be able to make an appointment for their dose of vaccine.
Many European countries also advocate a third for the elderly and the vulnerable. France has notably announced that the third dose will be added to its health passport for those over 65. French people aged 50 and over will be able to get this booster shot from next month.