As the Muslim month of fasting approaches, the Jewish state does not seem inclined to accept a truce in the fighting. “This year even more than the others”, researcher Yossi Mekelberg believes that the circumstances in the region are “explosive”.
Towards a respite of several weeks in the fighting? Discussions on a possible new truce in the Gaza Strip, almost five months after the start of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, continued in Cairo (Egypt) on Monday March 4. On Sunday, the Vice President of the United States, Kamala Harris, called for a “immediate ceasefire for at least the next six weeks.”In view of “the extent of the suffering” of the civilian population in the Palestinian enclave.
Since the start of operations by the Israeli army in Gaza, in retaliation for Hamas attacks in Israel on October 7, more than 30,000 people have died, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health, administered by the Islamist movement. The Pentagon itself has reported “more than 25,000” women and children killed in the enclave. In the absence of massive humanitarian aid, “We fear that widespread famine in Gaza is almost inevitable”alerted the UN humanitarian office (Ocha) at the same time.
In such a context, “Egypt continues its intense efforts to reach a truce before Ramadan”, the holy month of Muslim fasting, according to Egyptian television channel AlQahera News. The holy month, for Muslim faithful in the Palestinian territories, is scheduled to begin Sunday March 10 or Monday March 11. With the fear of an escalation of the conflict.
Israel puts pressure
“Every year, Ramadan can be a point of tension [dans le conflit israélo-palestinien] and this year even more”observes researcher Yossi Mekelberg, specialist in the Israeli-Palestinian question. Hostilities are likely to continue over the coming weeks in the Gaza Strip, where almost the entire population is Muslim.
On February 18, former Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz, a member of the Jewish state’s war cabinet, issued an ultimatum to the Islamist movement: “If, by Ramadan, the hostages are not at home, fighting will continue everywhere, including in the Rafah region.” “Hamas has a choicehe continued. They can surrender, free the hostages and the civilians of Gaza will be able to celebrate Ramadan.”
One way “to create pressure on the other camp”, points out Yossi Mekelberg. But is reaching an agreement possible between Israel and Hamas, with only one week to go? The mediators in this conflict are trying to reach a truce which would allow, in particular, the release of hostages held in Gaza, but also of Palestinian prisoners in Israel. Hamas, however, demands a total ceasefire, while Israel maintains its objective of completely eradicating the Palestinian movement.
Qatar fears a conflagration
Without an agreement within a week, the continuation of Israeli operations remains unclear. “The question is open”, underlines Yossi Mekelberg. The problem with “such a clear deadline”as posed by Benny Gantz, “is that you are entering into a blind alley in order to act.” On February 26, US President Joe Biden expressed confidence about a pause in the fighting. “Ramadan is coming and there was an agreement by the Israelis that they would not engage in operations during Ramadan, to give us time to get all the hostages out”, he said on NBC.
A day earlier, Benjamin Netanyahu had nevertheless mentioned an upcoming offensive in Rafah, which he described as the “last bastion” of Hamas. A truce, he said, would simply delay this operation, which would guarantee in his eyes a definitive victory over the Islamist movement. But uSuch an offensive could have catastrophic consequences, at a time when the city of Rafah, located in the far south of the Gaza Strip, already hosts 1.4 million Palestinian refugees.
NGOs are indeed worried about Israeli plans to evacuate the population. “She is totally exhausted, she no longer has any resources. A massive population displacement will send many to death”recently feared Frédéric Joli, spokesperson for the International Committee of the Red Cross, on franceinfo. Not to mention the fact that Rafah is a crucial area for humanitarian aid.
“A full-scale Israeli offensive on the city would not only be terrifying for the more than a million Palestinian civilians sheltering there, but it would spell the end of our aid programs.”
Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of the UNFebruary 26
The continuation of these operations also raises fears of a conflagration on a regional scale. At the end of February, King Abdullah II of Jordan warned that “the continuation of the war against Gaza, during the holy month of Ramadan”would only make it worse “the threat of an extension of the conflict”reports The Times of Israel. “Ramadan is ahead of us and if the situation in Rafah evolves, it will be a very, very dangerous time for the region”in turn warned the Prime Minister of Qatar, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, in February.
Jerusalem at the heart of tensions?
As the start of the Muslim fast approaches, all eyes are turning towards the Esplanade des Mosques in Jerusalem. It is the third holiest site in Islam and the holiest site in Judaism. Three years ago, on the last Friday of Ramadan, clashes broke out there after initial clashes in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood, in occupied East Jerusalem. These tensions left hundreds injured, before an 11-day war between Hamas and Israel.
“There are regular clashes in Jerusalem, but this year the context is much more tense. We are on the razor’s edge. Conditions are much worse today than they were in 2021.”
Yossi Mekelberg, researcherat franceinfo
In mid-February, Itamar Ben Gvir, Israeli Minister of Internal Security and far-right figure, declared that Palestinians living in the occupied West Bank “should not be able to enter” on the Esplanade des Mosques during Ramadan. “We cannot have women and children hostage in Gaza and allow celebrations for Hamas on the Temple Mount [le nom de l’esplanade des Mosquées pour les juifs]“, he defended. The Jewish supremacist, according to Haaretzalso advocates restricting the arrival of Israeli Arabs on the esplanade.
Finally, the Israeli government announced Tuesday that Muslim worshipers could pray on the Mosque Esplanade “in the same number as in previous years”. This number will be reviewed every week depending on security conditions. “We will do everything to guarantee freedom of worship on the Temple Mount and allow Muslims to celebrate (Ramadan)while taking into account security requirements., assured Benjamin Netanyahu. Washington had not hidden his concern. On February 28, the United States once again called on Israel to allow unhindered access for worshipers to the al-Aqsa mosque on the esplanade.
“It’s not only the right thing to do, it’s not only a matter of granting people the religious freedom that they deserve and are entitled to, but it’s also an issue that is directly important for Israel’s security.”
Matthew Miller, State Department spokespersonFebruary 28
Because with his words, Itamar Ben Gvir took the risk of playing “pyromaniac firefighter”, in the opinion of Israeli centrist Yaïr Lapid, opposition figure. Hamas, in fact, was quick to react. The leader of the movement, Ismaïl Haniyeh, called “to go to al-Aqsa from the first day of the blessed month of Ramadan, in groups or alone, to pray there in order to break the siege imposed on it.” For Yoav Gallant, the Israeli Defense Minister, “Hamas’ main objective is to take advantage of Ramadan (…) and make it the second phase of their plan which began on October 7.”.
In the ranks of Hamas and within the Israeli right and far-right coalition, “There are extreme elements who think it is better to make things worse during Ramadan”, analyzes Yossi Mekelberg. During Ramadan, “People will gather and many of them are angry about the situation. It creates explosive circumstances.”