The delayed presentation of the draft budget to the National Assembly will be the first major test of Michel Barnier’s future government, which could be censured in the coming weeks.
The copy is expected to be delivered a little late. Michel Barnier plans to present his draft finance bill to the National Assembly on October 9, instead of October 1, as required by law. If the Prime Minister’s intentions were to come to fruition, this would be an extremely rare event in the history of the Fifth Republic. This has only happened once before, in 1962, and already after a dissolution of the National Assembly. That year, the budget was adopted in February, which is not expected to happen this year, however.
Time is pressing, however, because parliamentarians must have 70 days to study and vote on the finance law before it is applied, that is, on January 1, 2025. Cand potential delay “complicates the task of the opposition, who need time to take note of and calmly amend the draft budgetunderlines public law professor Bertrand-Léo Combrade. This is what explains the initiative of Eric Coquerel and Charles de Courson: they fear running out of time, therefore they ask Bercy to transmit documents without delay.”
On Tuesday, the president (La France insoumise) and the general rapporteur (Liot) of the finance committee of the National Assembly were refused access by Matignon to the ceiling letters, which set the credits of the ministries within the framework of the 2025 budget project. They were sent to the ministries on August 20, one month behind schedule. The two parliamentarians went to the Ministry of Economy and Finance at noon on Wednesday to request the same documents. Again, without obtaining them.
Another part of the opposition is waiting with more patience, for the moment. “We will deal with the situation as it was imposed on us by the Prime Minister”philosopher Laurent Baumel, socialist member of the finance committee. “We’re going to be a week behind schedule, but that’s not going to cause us any problems.”assures one of her colleagues from this commission, not very worried.
“We shouldn’t worry too much about this delay.”
A member of the Finance Committeeto franceinfo
For the future government, the situation is delicate. Michel Barnier certainly estimated on Wednesday that the budgetary situation of France was “very serious”. But he has still not managed to form his government. He is therefore, for the moment, without ministers responsible for the Economy and Public Accounts. He must also quickly compose a budget that will not really be his own. And he must proceed without having managed the ceiling letters of the ministries, the draft budget in question having been prepared during the summer by his predecessor, Gabriel Attal.
The resigning Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, also warned at the beginning of September of a financial slippage of local authorities of the order of 16 billion euros, which complicates the task of the next tenants of Bercy. The Prime Minister wants to leave his mark on the budget by placing greater emphasis on “tax justice”without detailing the means of achieving this.
Tensions have already arisen with members of the presidential camp on the tax issue. The Prime Minister could lose the support of part of Ensemble pour la République (ex-Renaissance) if any tax increases were implemented. “Raising taxes is the easy way out”warned Gérald Darmanin, the resigning Minister of the Interior, on France 2 on Wednesday morning.
Gabriel Attal, now leader of the Macronist deputies, asked Michel Barnier to clarify his “political line, particularly on possible tax increases”. A meeting between Michel Barnier and the executives of the Ensemble pour la République group aimed to “decide to [leur] participation in government”. Scheduled for Wednesday morning, itand appointment has been “offset” at the request of Matignon. “This situation deserves better than little phrases. It demands responsibility.”Michel Barnier said to his possible government partners.
If this desire to “tax justice” If tax increases were to occur, political balances could change, but to an unknown extent. “If we tax the most privileged and the excess profits of certain multinationals more, in exchange for a reduction in the tax burden on the middle classes, then Mr Barnier will have our support.”warned RN MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy, member of the finance committee, on BFMTV on Tuesday evening. “The Ecologist and Social group will support all tax justice measures that allow us to finance our public services”environmentalists announced on Wednesday morning.
Support lost on the right and in the center, others gained on the extreme right and on the left… The search for a majority threatens to turn into an impossible mission for Michel Barnier, who has “asked for all the elements to appreciate the exact reality” of the budgetary situation. “They’ll be in trouble anyway.”anticipates the socialist Laurent Baumel.
“The government’s embarrassment will not be linked to the procedure, but to the substance of the cases.”
Laurent Baumel, PS member of the finance committeeto franceinfo
Finally, the situation remains tense for Michel Barnier because the budget is traditionally a difficult moment for any government, even when it has a relative majority in the National Assembly. How can the finance law be passed when the opposition representatives unite to not validate it? “I can’t see how this budget would pass without 49.3.”predicts one of the members of the finance committee. “We will have a 49.3 on the budget”predicted a deputy from Ensemble pour la République at the beginning of September. In fact, the government could have to use article 49.3 of the Constitution several times, because the finance law is voted on in several stages. Elisabeth Borne had also used this constitutional weapon on several occasions to have her budget adopted without a vote by the deputies.
The New Popular Front will unsurprisingly table one or more motions of censure, and the National Rally will then have to decide whether to allow the government to survive or to ally itself with the left to bring it down. Jordan Bardella warned Michel Barnier that he was a Prime Minister “under surveillance” of the RN. “The balance of power is completely reversed, with a minority government which will benefit from the hyper-conditional benevolence of the RN”observes Laurent Baumel, for whom the government could fall as early as this autumn.