Nearly seven months after the start of the war in Ukraine, the separatist authorities of four regions of the country announced on Tuesday, September 20, the holding of “annexation referendums” from Friday 23 to Tuesday 27 September. The next day, in his televised address, Vladimir Putin also gave his support to these initiatives, defending the “right to self-determination” residents of the provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia. Franceinfo explains why these announcements represent a major escalation in the Ukrainian conflict.
Because Russia considers these territories as its own
While the Russian army has lost ground on the Ukrainian front, to the point that Vladimir Putin has announced a partial mobilization in his country, the organization of these referendums looks like a show of force. Because these polls have been mentioned for several months and their organization seems to have accelerated with the Ukrainian counter-offensive. “It’s a way to sanctuary these territories”explains Jean de Gliniasty, former French ambassador to Russia, now director of research at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris). “Russia announces for the outside, that it will defend these territories as its own.”
“Any ground threat to these territories will be considered an existential threat by Moscow.”
Jean de Gliniasty, former ambassador to Russiaat franceinfo
Once these referendums have been approved (an outcome that is beyond doubt), Russia could therefore consider that the war is now taking place on its soil. “And when we talk about an existential threat, it’s the atomic weapon that is at stake”, continues Jean de Gliniasty. Vladimir Putin has indeed threatened to“use all the weapons at our disposal if the territorial integrity of Russia is threatened” during his televised address.
For Alexandra Goujon, lecturer in political science at the University of Burgundy and specialist in Ukraine, these referendums nevertheless constitute “the logical continuation of the war. It is indeed a territorial conquest with the desire to annex Ukrainian territories which are not considered legitimate“.
Because Moscow adopts the same strategy as in Crimea
The legitimacy of these votes is widely disputed. “These polls are totally illegal and make no sense.assures Nicolas Tenzer, teacher at Sciences Po, specialist in international issues, interviewed on franceinfo. “The regions concerned are largely occupied, sometimes at war, people cannot vote.”
The first diplomatic reactions confirm that the results of these referenda will not be recognized by the international community. For German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, these elections are “fictitious” and their results will not be “not covered by international law”. To the United Nations General Assembly, Emmanuel Macron described these votes as “parody“.
“The very idea of holding referendums in regions that have known war, that have suffered bombardments is the signature of cynicism.”
Emmanuel Macronat the rostrum of the United Nations
These annexations could however have an outcome similar to that of Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014 after a referendum not recognized by the international community. “The United States will never recognize Russia’s claims to allegedly annexed parts of Ukraine”warned Jake Sullivan, national security adviser to the White House.
Because it serves Russian propaganda
These announcements are in line with Russian propaganda since the start of the invasion of Ukraine on February 24. During his televised address, Vladimir Putin reaffirmed his desire “protect” the Ukrainians of the so-called “Nazi regime” in place in Kyiv. “We do not have the right to leave citizens at the mercy of these barbarians, this population must have the right to self-determination”he claimed. For Nicolas Tenzer, these announcements serve “exclusively the internal propaganda of the Russian regime”.
“It helps to justify the attack by explaining that these territories are supposedly Russian.”
Nicolas Tenzer, specialist in international issueson franceinfo
According to Jean de Gliniasty, former ambassador to Russia, the holding of these referendums could also reassure the populations who remained in the regions concerned and who took the side of Russia. : “They are very afraid of a purge, of difficulties with the Ukrainian authorities in the event of Ukrainian reconquest. There, that means: ‘We will not let you go’. And that is very important.”