The United States this week accused China of considering supplying arms to Russia to support its offensive in Ukraine, which Beijing denies.
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If so, it would “change the game” in this conflict that has lasted for a year, believe several experts.
Why such a statement from Washington?
Since the start of the war, China has offered Russian President Vladimir Putin its financial and diplomatic support, avoiding the shipment of arms or any overt military involvement.
State-controlled Chinese firms have sold drones and other equipment to Russia and Ukraine, but Moscow has had to turn to Iran for much-needed weapons, such as combat drones.
According to Washington, North Korea also supplied Russia with rockets and artillery shells.
AFP
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.
And the United States now fears that Beijing will do the same. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated his warning on Monday, after warning on Sunday that China was considering supplying arms to Russia, following a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Munich, in margin of the Security Conference.
“We talked about the war being waged by Russia and the concerns we have that China is planning to provide lethal support to Russia,” he said on CBS.
Mr. Blinken has provided no evidence to support this claim – and his critics will point to past mistakes by US intelligence services – but it is part of the sensitive information released by Washington to forestall and disrupt Russian war plans.
“The fact that Mr. Blinken has chosen to publicize these concerns suggests that the United States has solid intelligence,” said Richard McGregor, an East Asia researcher at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.
These were described as “false information” by Wang Wenbin, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Why is the United States concerned?
An influx of weapons from China “would reshuffle the cards” of the conflict in Ukraine, argued to AFP Mick Ryan, former strategist and general of the Australian army now retired.
“It’s a war of industrial systems. At the moment, Russia is (lagging behind) the West. If China gets involved, any advantage that Ukraine had thanks to the industrial capacity of the West disappears instantly,” he explained.
“Chinese ammunition would make life very difficult for Ukrainians, whether it’s artillery ammunition, precision ammunition, or longer-range strike weapons that Russia is short of.”
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Because since the beginning of the Russian invasion, Russia has struggled to gather enough personnel, ammunition and weapons, which explains its stagnation in the face of Ukrainian resistance. This state of affairs prompted Vladimir Putin to resort to mass conscription, mercenary groups and imports.
Meanwhile, Ukraine managed to stop the Russian advance, and even gain the upper hand. But some experts believe the war is at an inflection point, with each side snatching resources and seeking decisive gains as spring approaches.
Why would China get involved?
Chinese military commentator Song Zhongping claimed that China would not send weapons to Russia, while pointing out that political, commercial and military cooperation between Moscow and Beijing had increased even before the war in Ukraine and that this trend would continue.
“China will not listen to US demands. It will strengthen its cooperation with Russia in accordance with its own national will and national security concerns,” he said.
Many experts believe that there is more at stake and that Ukraine is turning into a proxy conflict worthy of the Cold War era.
For Alexey Muraviev, professor of strategic and security studies at Curtin University in Perth, Australia, “the war in Ukraine is a critical moment for the international security environment, for the world order”.
A decision to export arms would be “a huge step” for China, which would expose itself to Western sanctions, burn the remaining bridges with Washington and scuttle ties with Europe.
But the prospect of seeing Russia lose worries Beijing, according to Muraviev.
In this case, “China will find itself alone”, he analyzed. “Russia is the only major power that supports China.”
Conversely, a Russian victory would mean “inflicting a strategic defeat on the United States” and thus helping to fuel President Xi Jinping’s narrative that the West is in decline — an idea currently being undermined by the stalemate from Russia to Ukraine.
According to the professor, China is trying to play the balancing act in this conflict, finding the right balance between risk and reward: supplying weapons through state-controlled companies, North Korea or the Wagner group rather than directly to the Russian military.
“I think their approach will be more clandestine,” he concluded.