The candidate has had a series of defeats since January. At the dawn of “Super Tuesday”, she continues to present herself as an alternative to Trumpism.
“I’m not going to give up this fight.” The promise made by Nikki Haley seems illusory, as Donald Trump’s latest opponent is left behind in the race for the Republican Party nomination for the American presidential election. The candidate won her first victory on Sunday March 3 during the primaries in the capital Washington. A symbolic success which does not allow him to forget his numerous defeats in recent weeks. At the end of February, the ex-governor was largely defeated in South Carolina, a state that she led for eight years. In Nevada, she even got fewer votes than the vote for “no candidate”while Donald Trump did not appear on the ballots.
While fifteen states vote on the traditional “Super Tuesday”, Tuesday March 5, Nikki Haley “has no realistic chance of reversing the trend”estimates Françoise Coste, professor of American studies at Toulouse-Jean Jaurès University. “Losing in your own state is truly a humiliation from which it is difficult to recover.”argues the expert. “The most worrying thing is its dynamics: it is not making any significant progress”, says historian Lauric Henneton. For the United States specialist, his victory in Washington, “a city that is 95% Democratic”, “is insignificant at best”.
Resist until “Super Tuesday”
“Arithmetically, she is clearly ahead”, notes Lauric Henneton. On Sunday, two days before the most important deadline in the primaries, Donald Trump already had 244 delegate votes out of the 1,215 needed to be officially designated presidential candidate at the Republican Party convention in July. Nikki Haley only has 43, according to the AP agency’s count. “Super Tuesday” can only widen this gap. So why doesn’t the candidate give up?
So far, Nikki Haley has been able to continue her campaign because she has the means. In January, the Republican candidate raised $16.5 million in donations, reports CNBC. But the sources are drying up. After his defeat in South Carolina, “it lost the support of its main financiers, the famous Koch brothers”notes Françoise Coste.
“If these donors have thrown in the towel, it is because they have understood that [la campagne de Nikki Haley] was a lost cause.”
Françoise Coste, professor of American studiesat franceinfo
Donald Trump’s rival is “without a doubt” also driven by his “ego”, says the professor of American studies. Nikki Haley “wants to hold out until ‘Super Tuesday,’ which is traditionally the time when the most credible challengers withdraw from the race when they realize they can no longer take it away”judge Françoise Coste. “It is also a question of thanking his teams on the ground, by allowing them to lead the primary campaign to its conclusion.”
Position yourself as a “plan B”
Given the colossal cost of a presidential campaign in the United States, Nikki Haley’s calculations surely go further than “Super Tuesday”. “We should not neglect the desire to continue to receive significant media coverage, which is a way for her to build her national image and position herself as a leading figure”, points out Françoise Coste. Especially if the former American ambassador to the UN sees herself as “a plan B (…) in case of impediment” of Donald Trump, believes Lauric Henneton.
The former President of the United States must indeed appear in several trials between now and November, in particular concerning his responsibility in the assault on the Capitol in 2021. And he could well be convicted in some of these cases. None of the more than 90 charges currently against him can be accompanied by a penalty of ineligibility: according to the American Constitution, only a conviction for “insurrection” prevents a candidate from running for president. But polls show that voter support would crumble if Donald Trump were found guilty in a criminal trial, NBC reveals.
So it’s possible that Nikki Haley will sign up “in a long-term logic, where she would wait until [l’ex-président] stumbles to remain the only one in the race”analyzes Lauric Henneton. In recent weeks, she has increased her attacks against Donald Trump. “Instead of wondering which states I’m going to win, why don’t we ask ourselves how he’s going to win the presidential election after spending a whole year in court?”she said in an interview with the AP agency at the end of February.
“Whether she likes it or not, Nikki Haley has become the voice of primary voters who can’t bring themselves to [voter pour Donald] Trump.”
Lauric Henneton, historian specializing in the United Statesat franceinfo
This strategy, however, has little chance of succeeding, according to Françoise Coste. “If Donald Trump could not be a candidate, it is difficult to see how the one who challenged him, sometimes making very harsh remarks against him, would be seen as a replacement choice… The Trumpist base will never adopt him”deciphers the specialist from the United States. “A fringe of Republicans would be delighted by a return to a certain normality after the Trump storm, but the party remains committed” to the billionaire, confirms Lauric Henneton. It is therefore not “not sure Nikki Haley is the most obvious heir” in the event of forced abandonment of the favorite of the Republican primaries.
Preparing for the 2028 presidential election
Is the ex-governor trying to position herself for the next presidential election? “The 2028 election already looks like a horizon for those who want (…) to renew the executives, on both the Democratic and Republican sides.”, assures Lauric Henneton. In four years, “Trump and Biden will not run again”. Nikki Haley “will have acquired notoriety which allows one to position oneself during a primary”estimates the historian. “She will have been talked about, she will have had air time, and this visibility attracts donors.”
The candidate “is betting that once Donald Trump leaves the political scene, the Republican Party will return to ‘the way it was'”with a conservatism “with the George W. Bush flavor that she embodies well”confirms Françoise Coste.
“This bet is very risky, as the base of the Republican Party has been transformed by all these years of Trumpism.”
Françoise Coste, professor of American studiesat franceinfo
The 2028 election could see a clash “a host of heirs” policies of the former president, which “would fragment the Trumpist vote”, says Lauric Henneton. If the rest of the party is not too fragmented, “Nikki Haley might have a good chance” to win the conservative nomination for the next presidential election, believes the historian. It remains to be seen whether this is really its objective. “If she has no ambition for 2024 or 2028, we can ask ourselves why she persistsunderlines Lauric Henneton. A presidential campaign has a cost that is not only financial, you must have a good reason to continue the effort.”