Almost a year of war in the Middle East, and a ceasefire that continues to drift further away. Israel carried out new deadly strikes in Lebanon on Monday, September 23, which led the UN to express alarm at a “real escalation” in the conflict with Hezbollah, the Lebanese Islamist movement allied with the Palestinian Hamas. Monday’s strikes, which left hundreds dead according to the Lebanese Health Ministry, also forced many residents of the south of the country to flee.
“Israel’s policy is not to wait for threats but to anticipate them”justified Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to a statement. On Wednesday, the latter is expected in the United States for the UN General Assembly, where he is to speak before dozens of world leaders, including Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and the new Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, who on Monday accused him of seeking to “expand” the conflict following the October 7 attacks in Israel throughout the region.
Israel’s actions in Lebanon since the attacks using beepers and booby-trapped walkie-talkies that targeted Hezbollah members raise questions about Benjamin Netanyahu’s intentions, after a year of a deadly military intervention against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Despite warnings from Israel’s allies calling for avoiding any escalation and pressure from a section of Israeli public opinion, Benjamin Netanyahu does not seem to have any intention of changing his position. Explanations.
He set war goals that were difficult to achieve.
In the aftermath of the October 7 Hamas attacks in Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that Israel would destroy “the abilities” of the Palestinian Islamist group. Since then, the Israeli Prime Minister has repeatedly presented the operation in Gaza as a “existential war” for Israel.
But in the Israeli government’s rhetoric, the aims of the war have evolved. On September 18, the executive branch declared that it was now focusing on the fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon, on Israel’s northern border. “center of gravity” of war “moves north”said Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, referring to a “new phase” which should allow the return of Israelis who have left the border regions since October 7 due to Hezbollah strikes.Israel is reversing the “balance of power” with the Lebanese movement, welcomed Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday, according to a statement from his services.
“The war goals were too ambitious. The government said it would overthrow and destroy Hamas, but that was not achieved,” explains to franceinfo Ahron Bregman, professor of war studies at King’s College London and specialist in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The government’s other goal was to free the hostages held by Hamas, but of the 251 people kidnapped, 97 are still being held in Gaza, 33 of whom have been declared dead by the army. “For these reasons, he cannot stop the war. That would be admitting defeat,” Ahron Bregman continues. However, for Benjamin Netanyahu, “It’s all about politics and political survival.”
He is being pushed into government by his far-right allies
Since 2022, Benjamin Netanyahu has led a coalition in which two far-right ministers, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, have gained significant weight. Religious Zionists, Jewish supremacists, these two leaders are in favor of a total war against Hamas. They campaign for the annexation of Palestinian territories, the return of Jewish settlers to Gaza and “emigration” Palestinians.
Since the resignation of former chief of staff Benny Gantz in June, their influence within the government has grown further. “Without the extreme right, he has no majority and with it, he [Benyamin Nétanyahou] is forced to compose”, summarizes for France 24 David Khalfa, co-director of the North Africa and Middle East Observatory within the Jean-Jaurès Foundation.
“Benyamin Netanyahu is a prisoner of his coalition partners. To survive politically, he is prepared to continue the war.”
Ahron Bregman, Professor of War Studies at King’s College Londonto franceinfo
However, Benjamin Netanyahu has the support of the other parties in his coalition, which have “said they would support him in a ceasefire agreement“, qualifies Nimrod Goren, Israel specialist at the Middle East Institute, to franceinfo. “It is sometimes comfortable to blame one’s partners. But he is the Prime Minister, he is the one who makes the decisions“, he emphasizes.
He hopes war will delay his corruption trial
Since 2019, Benjamin Netanyahu has been facing criminal charges in Israel. He is accused of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three cases. In one of them, he and members of his family are suspected of receiving gifts from two billionaires, including champagne, cigars and jewelry worth approximately €185,000, in exchange for personal services.
The case is the subject of a trial that was interrupted for two months after October 7, but resumed in December. The Israeli prime minister, whose political future is at stake, has not yet been called to the stand. “Some observers believe he is using the war to distract attention and delay his trial.”explains Ahron Bregman. “Especially if the war spreads to Lebanon. The conflict will last and the hearing will be delayed.” According to the Times of IsraelBenjamin Netanyahu is due to begin testifying on December 2. His statements are all the more anticipated given the screening of the documentary Bibi Files at the Toronto Film Festival on September 9, has generated strong reactions in Israel. The film highlights the link between the Prime Minister’s legal affairs and the continuation of the war in the Gaza Strip, develops International mail.
Israeli public opinion is also urging Benjamin Netanyahu to set up a commission of inquiry into the failings that may have led to the October 7 massacres, but he has always refused to do so before the end of the fighting, recalls the Times of Israel. Once created, this commission “will be very severe and will spare no one”, Denis Charbit, professor of political science at the Free University of Israel, told franceinfo in January.
He knows that the outcome of the American presidential election will weigh on the evolution of the conflict.
“Everyone, including Israel, is waiting to see what will happen in the United States in November. The future American president will influence politics in the region.”assures Nimrod Goren. Since the beginning of the war, the American Democratic President Joe Biden has firmly displayed his support for the Jewish state, but he has adjusted his position due, among other things, to the pressure exerted by the demonstrations of support for the Palestinians in his country. If the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris wins the presidential election on November 5, “The Biden administration could take until January [et l’investiture du futur président] “more clear-cut measures” towards Israel to achieve a ceasefire, believes Nimrod Goren.
On the other hand, if Donald Trump wins the election, Benjamin Netanyahu could have “more free rein” to continue his war, Jean-Paul Chagnollaud, president of the Mediterranean Middle East Research and Studies Institute, said on franceinfo. The Republican candidate is a fervent defender of Israel. In May, he notably assured that if he returned to the White House, he “would demand peace through force.” Benjamin Netanyahu hopes that Donald Trump will win, “because he thinks he will support him even more”continues Ahron Bregman.