“We’re going to peak, it’s a matter of days. Will it be a peak or a high plateau?” On LCI, Tuesday January 25, the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, was confident about the approach of a new epidemic peak, and thus of a potential decline in cases of Covid-19 infections linked to the Omicron variant. While assuming uncertainty about the evolution of the fifth wave, between the hypothesis of a sharp peak followed by a decline or that of stagnation at a high level in the number of contaminations. “Othere is still a very active wave (…) with a virus which is still circulating in the general population in a significant way”, recalled the Minister.
On Monday, France recorded a rolling average, over seven days, of 360,912 daily cases, against 295,000 a week earlier. The curve of this average continues to rise nationally, even if the peak seems to have already been reached in Île-de-France. “The rest of the territory is still in a growth phase”, confirms with franceinfo Pascal Crépey, epidemiologist at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health in Rennes.
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This epidemic wave “is not insignificant, not over”, added the president of the Scientific Council, Jean-François Delfraissy, Tuesday morning on franceinfo. How to explain it? Beyond the more contagious character of the Omicron variant, several factors can explain this continuous growth in the number of contaminations.
School infections played a role
In its latest opinion dated January 19, the Scientific Council exposes the return to school in January as a factor that may have played on the increase in infections in Île-de-France. In the most populated region of the country, after a “slight slowdown”, “a significant increase in the number of cases was notified on January 18, with approximately 460,000 cases declared in 24 hours”, note the instance. “It seems that this rise is explained by a resurgence of the epidemic in the under 15s and in the 30-44s, suggesting a significant effect of the return to school.
“The virus circulates intensely among the youngest and then spreads to parents.”
The Scientific Councilin his latest review
The week of January 17, 10-19 year olds were thus the age group with the highest incidence rate, reaching 5,703.8 according to Public Health France. This rate was 4,074.8 for 0-9 year olds, and 4,459.6 for 30-39 year olds. “There is most definitely an effect of increasing transmissions between these two age groups. Children infect parents, just as parents can infect their children,” analyzes Pascal Crépey.
The epidemiologist nevertheless recalls that the incidence rates remain high for the entire population, and that “it would be wrong to reduce the circulation of the virus to just a problem of schools and parents infected by their children”.
“It is quite clear that if we closed schools purely and simply, it would surely be insufficient to break the dynamics of the spread of the virus.”
Pascal Crépey, epidemiologistat france info
“We saw it over the Christmas holidays, the incidence continued to rise as schools were closed,” emphasizes the teacher-researcher. However, he notes that chains of contamination could have been avoided in schools. “if we had made more efforts on ventilation, on saliva tests that were easier to set up and perform routinely. But just as if we had used teleworking earlier”, continues Pascal Crépey.
The government has favored “freedom of movement”
Olivier Véran himself recognized it on Tuesday morning on LCI : “In France (…), we have chosen to favor the freedom of movement of the French.” “We haven’t closed bars and restaurants, businesses, we haven’t put in place curfews, we haven’t stopped people from moving around, where a lot of countries around us have implemented tougher measures, assumed the Minister of Health. After several weeks of hindsight, we can see that the health situation is not degraded in France compared to those of neighbors who have made these choices.
This strategy nevertheless played on the level of contamination in France. “Could stronger measures have reduced traffic further [du virus] ? Yes, that’s obvious.” confirms with franceinfo Pascal Crépey. Professor Eric Caumes, head of the infectious diseases department La Pitié hospital
The epidemiologist understands the taking into account of these constraints in the government’s choices. But he also regrets reading the hospital figures of this new wave: “We hear a lot: ‘Omicron is not serious, because it causes few resuscitations’ (…). But with many more cases, there is potentially more risk of severe forms, and therefore of hospitalizations”, reminds the researcher, while alerting on “people who will keep symptoms, more or less long”.
The population is tired of barrier gestures
If the government has not opted for great firmness, it is also because “general measures restricting social activities now seem more difficult to consider, except in extreme situations”, points out the Scientific Council in its latest opinion. “The public authorities take the measure of these developments, by being reluctant to implement restrictive measures, which are both unpopular, derogatory to freedoms and disrespectful of the dignity of individuals and the autonomy acquired by the population in the fight against the epidemic”, continues the proceeding.
“There is indeed a loss in the time of adherence to the measures” sanitary facilities, notes Pascal Crépey, who contributed to a recent study (link in English) referring to the concept of “pandemic fatigue”. “The longer the measures that must be respected must be respected, the more they lose effectiveness” within the population, notes the epidemiologist. The researcher asks: “Perhaps we had more to gain from putting strong measures in place for a short time, rather than light measures for a long time.”
“We get used to the risks, to living with the virus, so we pay less attention to it.”
Pascal Crepeyat franceinfo
In its results published in mid-December, the SPF CoviPrev survey gives some data on maintaining adherence to barrier gestures. Between the end of November and the beginning of December, “62% [des Français] said they respected barrier gestures as much as at the start of the epidemic, while 25% said they respected them less”, emphasizes the study. “This lower membership was significantly higher among the youngest age groups (18-24 and 25-34), where it reached 43% and 35% respectively.
Vaccination plays on this evolution, but it is not the only explanatory factor. Slightly less than half of those questioned (46%) consider barrier gestures as “too restrictive on a daily basis”, and a quarter of them believe that they are not “not effective in limiting the progression of the epidemic”.
The rate of booster dose injections has slowed down
Olivier Véran underlined it on Tuesday morning on LCI: nine million French people risk losing their vaccination pass on February 15, if they have not received their booster dose by then. “It’s a lot”, insisted the Minister of Health.
The level of vaccination booster in France “is also one of the elements that can explain a high level of contamination”, continues Pascal Crépey. As noted by the Ourworldindata site (link in English), Sunday there were 45.9 booster doses administered per 100 people in France, against 50 for Germany, 54 for Belgium and the United Kingdom or 60 for Denmark. “We had greatly accelerated the third doses at the end of the year, but since the start of the year, we have been on a steep slowdown”, regrets the epidemiologist. After a peak (on a rolling average) at more than 600,000 daily booster doses in December, the rolling average on Sunday was much lower, at 297,795 doses administered.
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In the opinion of the teacher-researcher, “if we had remained at such a high rate of vaccination, we would have protected a lot of people against infection and broken this epidemic dynamic more effectively. The peak atwould have been reached everywhere much more quickly”, he believes.