The Covid is back. Increasing since the beginning of June, the number of new daily cases now exceeds 50,000 on average over a week in France. And new hospitalizations have also been on the rise for ten days. Should we fear a new large-scale wave? Is France an isolated case in Europe? Franceinfo takes stock of what we know about this epidemic rebound.
A clear increase in cases linked to the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants
In just over a week, the number of new cases detected has doubled in France. The average number of people infected with Covid per day, smoothed over a week, reached 54,118 on June 22. A figure at its highest since the beginning of May, but still far from the 140,000 cases recorded at the end of March, or the more than 350,000 at the end of January.
In question, the arrival of the new BA.4 and BA.5 variants. These two similar strains are from BA.2, the subvariant of Omicron that caused the spike in cases in March. Identified thanks to the L452R mutation, these variants are already the majority in France. According to the latest figures from Public Health France, they were the cause of more than 63% of cases as of June 19. “It seems that these variants spread more rapidly than BA.2 because they evade immunity acquired by vaccination more than by infection.details the epidemiologist and director of research at the CNRS Samuel Alizon at franceinfo.
Added to this is the decline in immunity of vaccinated people: “Protection against a new infection acquired as a result of vaccination or infection declines rapidly”, explains Samuel Alizon. An opinion shared by infectious disease specialist Anne-Claude Crémieux, interviewed by franceinfo, who recalls the importance of the second booster dose, open to people over 60 or immunocompromised. “Vaccination remains our best weapon against the pandemic”, she points out.
Hospitalizations on the rise, not deaths (yet)
On the side of hospital admissions of Covid patients, the figures have also been increasing for the past ten days. In less than two weeks, France went from less than 400 daily admissions to 635 on June 22. Nearly 13,500 Covid-positive people are now hospitalized in France.
The epidemic recovery is less clear in the intensive care units. New admissions are up 18% over one week, but remain outnumbered by discharges. And the number of people in intensive care positive for Covid is still very slightly decreasing.
Deaths also continue to decline, with an average of 40 deaths per day over the past week (June 15-22). “There is always a time lag between contaminations, hospitalizations and then deaths, recalls Samuel Alizon. And for the moment, we lack hindsight to know the dangerousness of these variants, and in particular if they also manage to circumvent immunity for severe forms.
Portugal hit a month early
Most countries in Western and Southern Europe are in a situation similar to that of France, with contaminations which have started to rise again since the beginning of June. This is the case of Germany, Italy or Switzerland.
But one country is particularly observed because it was affected by the BA.4 and BA.5 variants from the beginning of May: Portugal. The cases increased until exceeding 25,000 positive people daily at the beginning of June, which, with an equal population, would correspond to 160,000 cases per day in France. A high figure but which remains far from the 60,000 daily cases detected in Portugal at the end of January.
On the other hand, the number of deaths is approaching the peak of early February. This figure has doubled in one month, going from less than 20 daily deaths at the beginning of May to more than 40 at the beginning of June. Brought back to the French population, this is equivalent to around 250 daily deaths, a level close to that reached during the peak of the first Omicron wave in France (287 daily deaths on average the week of February 8).
However, the Covid wave seems to have passed its peak in Portugal: new daily cases have been halved since the end of May and daily deaths have started to drop slightly since June 10. A rather positive signal even if it is necessary to remain cautious on the comparison between the countries, Portugal having for example a higher vaccination rate of almost 9 points than France (87% against 78%). “We remain on the hope that this wave will be limited in time, with low hospitalizations”, reassures all the same Anne-Claude Crémieux.