The arrival of artificial intelligence (AI) and linguistic models like ChatGPT is scaring more and more workers, who do not know if their diplomas can protect them. “I just hope to make it to my retirement,” says one worker.
When asked if she believes that artificial intelligence threatens her career, Michèle has no hesitation. “Yes, 100%,” she says.
Michèle (fictitious name) has been a certified financial translator-reviser for many years. She works in a large Montreal office that employs several hundred people, including translators, revisers and language consultants. She wants to remain anonymous to speak openly without harming her job or her opportunity for advancement.
“I have always believed that my career was not threatened by technological tools like AI. But for the past three years, I’m not so sure anymore. »
That belief is waning at the rate technology—neural translation, in his case—advances.
Neural translation allows software to learn by analyzing a corpus of texts. The machine is constantly evolving and making fewer and fewer errors over the months and years.
“That’s what stresses me out. For three years, the machine has really progressed a lot. She has taken giant steps. So, what will it be in three years? In five years ? »
For Michèle, the profession of translator as it has long been practiced no longer exists.
“Before, we had to write, we had to fill in a blank page,” she says. Today, the text is already translated by the computer, and we revise it… Certain notions that we taught at university about the profession of translator 10 years ago are already outdated. I just hope my skills will be needed until 2034, when I plan to retire. »
Uncertain future
The question of the impact of AI on employment is at the heart of many current debates.
A recent study from the University of Pennsylvania showed that large language models like ChatGPT could affect at least 10% of the tasks performed by all American workers. And for 19% of workers, at least 50% of the tasks could be affected.
While all employment sectors are affected, jobs with high incomes are “potentially more exposed to the capabilities” of AI, write the researchers, who do not go ahead to predict whether this technology will cause updates. foot.
AI has the potential to help workers do some of their work, but the impact on society is still uncertain, explained Yoshua Bengio, a professor in the computer science department at the University of Montreal, in a conference at the C2 Montreal event at which The Press attended last month.
If AI allows a programmer to program twice as fast, are we going to need half as many programmers? Or are we going to need the same number of programmers, but they’re going to be twice as productive? It’s hard to say.
Yoshua Bengio
Best-selling author Yuval Noah Harari, who was speaking at the same conference, noted that the transformative power of AI society is, in his view, even greater than was the industrial revolution in the past. XIXe century.
“It took several generations to build the industrial society. We had a lot of bad experiences, like the Holocaust. It didn’t destroy us. With the AI revolution, we cannot afford to experiment and fail, because we will not survive failures, they can destroy us. »
In the short term, he said, many of humanity’s problems can be augmented by AI. “We don’t want to be alarmist, but the transition will be difficult. Hitler took power with 25% unemployment for three years. »
PHOTO CHRISTINNE MUSCHI, CANADIAN PRESS ARCHIVES
Yoshua Bengio and Yuval Noah Harari at C2 Montreal, last May
Mr. Harari also raised the possibility that some countries are AI winners and others are losers.
“For example, if, thanks to AI, you could have a fully autonomous textile factory in Canada, it would be a loss for a country like Guatemala, which would see its textile industry fall. So it is not excluded that AI can accentuate social inequalities on a planetary scale. »
The dubbing industry in doubt
Joey Galimi, president of the National Association of Professional Voice Actors, also believes that the wave of the artificial intelligence revolution is likely to transform his industry over the next few years, and not for the better.
“Will it become possible to dub films using artificial intelligence? I think so. It’s coming,” he said.
Translating texts and generating voices is already part of what AI can do. Software like VoxBox, ElevenLabs or Typecast can generate realistic voices that will only get better over time.
Currently, a film or TV series shot in English must be dubbed by teams in Quebec, France, Brazil, Mexico, Spain, Germany… Will we still need all these workers in 10 years ?
Joey Galimi, President of the National Association of Professional Voice Actors
The artificial intelligence revolution will not be limited to dubbing, but will affect all aspects of the film industry and television production, he believes.
“For example, if the AI can create a scene, are we still going to need extras? Tom Cruise and Morgan Freeman, their jobs are not in jeopardy. But all the people around, it’s not certain. »
According to him, the technology will be there, but the question will be to see if all this can be done legally. “The actors will have to accept that their voice serves as a translation. Or that their image is used by the AI. In my opinion, if there are barriers to all this, they will be legal, they will be in contracts. »