What to expect from the Canadiens

This season, the Canadiens want to be “in the mix.” In the race to make the playoffs. “The intention is to make the playoffs, not to have an early pick in the draft,” president Geoff Molson said Monday.

To achieve this, the Canadian will have to improve its goal differential.

By how much? It depends on the objective. To be in the game, he will have to subtract 50 goals. To cause an upset, about 70 goals.

That’s a very, very big mouthful. Too big? Let’s dust off the calculators, and study this together.

The attack

Last season, the Canadiens had one of the worst attacks in the NHL. The club finished in the bottom third for goals, shots and power play efficiency. A trifecta of misery.

This should change.

Three players will provide some life to this anemic attack. Patrik Laine, acquired from the Columbus Blue Jackets, is one of the NHL’s best power-play players. Not only does he shoot a lot, he also hits the target often. His career average in extra-man goals eclipses anything the Canadiens have seen in the last 15 years – and by a good margin.

It will be interesting to see how Martin St-Louis uses Patrik Laine as a surplus player. I assume it will be as a member of the first unit. However, the Canadiens already have a winger who loves to shoot in these circumstances, Cole Caufield. Will the two coexist in the same quintet? If so, in what roles? There is a lot of potential for growth there.

Another forward who will give Martin St-Louis options is Kirby Dach, back from a long convalescence. His offensive talent is undeniable. The unknown will be his reactivity, he who has only played two official games in the last 18 months. During his absence, the Canadiens’ opponents concentrated their best defensive forces against a single trio, Nick Suzuki’s. The hope raised by his return is that he will force the opponent to rebalance its coverage of the CH forwards. Suzuki would thus have a little more freedom.

The other card up St. Louis’ sleeve is Lane Hutson. Yes, he’s a lightweight defenseman. Yes, his defensive game needs some work. Except his vision and speed of execution are remarkable. He has the talent to control a power play, something the Canadiens lacked last season when Michael Matheson was off the ice.

Of course, all these wonderful people will have to stay healthy.

So how many more goals?

With blue-white-red glasses, between 30 and 40.

Do you think that’s not much?

On the contrary. It would be a great success. The conclusion of an extremely optimistic scenario, made possible by a perfect alignment of the stars. More than that, we fall into the realm of miracles.

In the last 10 years, only a handful of teams have scored 50 more goals than they did the previous season. How many? You have enough fingers to count them. Only eight, excluding COVID-19-shortened seasons. Last winter, there were none.

For the purposes of this exercise, let’s add 35 goals to the Canadiens.

The defense

The Canadiens’ weak point. “It’s pretty clear, we have to be better in our zone and keep the puck out of our goal,” said vice-president of hockey operations Jeff Gorton on Monday. “We have to cut off the opponent’s chances. I think we have a very good team on offense, but we’ll have to focus on our work on defense. That’s going to be necessary to be in the mix.”

By defense, I’m not just talking about the goalkeepers, but about the entire collective. The one that, last season, allowed an average of 33 shots on target per match.

The Canadiens didn’t acquire any defensive reinforcements this summer. They even traded two defensemen, Johnathan Kovacevic and Jordan Harris, who often participated in faceoffs in their zone. Who will get those defensive faceoffs? Arber Xhekaj? Justin Barron? Lane Hutson? Jayden Struble? Will more be asked of Kaiden Guhle and Michael Matheson? And who will take the combined 200 minutes of Kovacevic and Harris on the penalty kill?

“We’re very young on defense,” general manager Kent Hughes agreed. “Anyone who watched the two games against Toronto knows we have other young defensemen coming up. That’s why they say Rome wasn’t built in a day. You have to be aware of the fact that we’re young and there’s a lack of experience.”

The defensive efficiency of the forwards is also an issue. The Evolving Hockey website has developed an algorithm that ranks the defensive play of all NHL players, on a scale of 1 to 100. Only four forwards in the current edition of the CH finished last season above average: Joel Armia (96), Nick Suzuki (91), Rafael Harvey-Pinard (74) and Michael Pezzetta (54). On the other hand, there were a few below 10^e percentile.

For all these reasons, it’s hard to predict as much progress in defense as in attack. It would take another miracle. This time, goalies, who already had good statistics in 2023-2024. According to MoneyPuck, Samuel Montembeault and Cayden Primeau both prevented three goals last season.

Let’s be realistic and bet on a ten goal reduction.

Overall, in an optimistic scenario, the Canadiens could improve their differential by between 40 and 50 goals. That would be spectacular growth. Worthy of that of the Detroit Red Wings, who have improved their differential by 80 goals over the past three years… and who still remain excluded from the playoffs.

Hence the caution of the Canadiens’ leaders in their expectations.