what possible space for Valérie Hayer, candidate of the presidential majority?

Outgoing European MP, Valérie Hayer, head of the Renaissance list, is, at the end of March, seven to nine points behind Jordan Bardella in the voting intention polls for the June election.

Valérie Hayer, majority candidate in the European elections in June, must try to catch up with the far right by setting up a face-to-face meeting with the National Rally. According to the latest surveys, Jordan Bardella has a seven to nine point lead in voting intentions over Valérie Hayer, guest of Demain l’Europe on Monday March 25 on franceinfo. Her goal is to finish on the heels of the RN, a bit like Nathalie Loiseau five years ago. For this, Valérie Hayer suffers from a lack of notoriety, but displays two assets: a good mastery of European issues as even her opponents recognize, and then a clear, very clear, very Europhile positioning. To revive growth, face the climate challenge as well as the migratory challenge, and above all the threat embodied by Vladimir Putin, it is a question of showing ourselves to be more European, of building what it calls a Europe-power.

Valérie Hayer is nevertheless not the only one in this niche. Raphaël Glucksmann gives almost the same speech. Moreover, Valérie Hayer repeats that for five years, the latter has voted in the European Parliament, in more than 80%, cases like the Macronists. This close candidate therefore became his main rival. In the polls, Valérie Hayer is still ahead of him by 7 to 10 points. But Raphaël Glucksmann made the hole on the left. He has abandoned the environmentalists and the rebels and therefore dreams of setting up a match with the Macronists. And what is striking is that the two candidates are playing on exactly the same reflex.

The outlook for 2027

The famous “useful vote”. Valérie Hayer wants to embody it by posing as the only candidate capable of slowing down the rise of the extreme right. She therefore wants to siphon off the right from the François-Xavier Bellamy list like the left from the Glucksmann list. And, within a divided left, Raphaël Gluksmann claims to be the useful vote of his camp to prepare for 2027.

Marine Le Pen like Jean-Luc Mélenchon also gives the Europeans a warm-up tour of the presidential election. The paradox is that since the very first election, in 1984, the winner of the European elections has never won the presidential election that followed. The RN has also won the last two European elections and lost the presidential election in the process. It is therefore difficult for Valérie Hayer, as for Raphaël Glucksmann or Jordan Bardella, to use this argument, the “useful vote”, for an unnecessary vote… with a view to the presidential election.