Mutiny against the general staff or desire for a coup? The Wagner group took control of the city of Rostov on Saturday and its troops are moving towards Moscow, causing great uncertainty about the situation in Russia and the intentions of the unpredictable militia leader.
Yevgeny Prigojine says to himself “ready to die” with its 25,000 men for “liberate the russian people”. The boss of the Wagner group, who was in the occupied region of Donbass, entered Russia with his men on Saturday June 24 and took control of Rostov-on-the-Don, a strategic location for the Russian command for its operations. in Ukraine. Later in the day, fighting was reported further north in the Voronezh region, some 600 km south of Moscow, said the regional governor.
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The conflict in Ukraine allowed Yevgeny Prigojine to become a leading player in Russia. The businessman came out of the shadows, from where he had been operating for years. He claims to have 25,000 fighters today and calls on the Russian army and population to join him, while denying himself of carrying out a “military coup”. Franceinfo wonders about the intentions of the leader of the paramilitary group.
Does Prigojine want to overthrow the command of the Russian army?
Wagner’s chief has been attacking the Russian military command for months. The impetuous billionaire with a shaved head and harsh features denounces in multiple videos “incompetence” Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valeri Guerassimov. In early February, he criticized the “monstrous military bureaucracy” which prevented, according to him, the rapid capture of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmout, where his mercenaries died by the thousands. He also demanded ammunition with a lot of insults.
After denouncing Russian strikes against Wagner camps, Yevgeny Prigojine called on the Russian military and population to “join”. However, he defended himself from everything “military coup”claiming to be conducting a “walk for justice”. He also personally accused Sergei Shoigu of ordering the strikes. “We want [Gerassimov] and Shoigu. Until they are there, we will stay, blockade Rostov and head for Moscow”he said in a video relayed Saturday morning on a Telegram account linked to the Wagner group.
“We were ready to make concessions with the Ministry of Defense, surrender our weapons and make a decision to continue defending our country. But this garbage has not calmed down.”
Yevgeny Prigojine, leader of the Wagner groupon Telegram
“One of the hypotheses I believe in the most is that he wants to submit or take over the Russian general staff, entrust to Figaro General Francois Chauvancy. He does not seek political power, but military power.” It is indeed difficult to imagine Prigojine taking over the Kremlin. “He has allies in the mercenaries he freed…and he has allies in the radical nationalists who think the war doesn’t go far enoughanalysis on France 2 General Dominique Trinquand, specialist in international issues. I don’t think he can claim a position as head of the Russian state, just because he is not popular in Russia.”
Is this a possible maneuver for the benefit of the Kremlin?
During his interventions, the head of Wagner took care, until recently, never to attack Vladimir Putin directly. We must remain cautious, because nothing is certain when it comes to Prigojine, a past master in the art of provocation and reversals. General Dominique Trinquand puts forward two hypotheses: either “he took the melon and no longer knows the limits”, “either he is still working for Putin” and leads this rebellion to put the Russian president back in the center and in “stabilizer” from the country. “If Putin manages to show that he holds the reins despite this attempt at rebellion, he shows that he is the guarantor of Russian unity”explains the general on franceinfo, to support this surprising hypothesis.
“This is where it is a little difficult to distinguish between manipulation and reality in this announced rebellion.”
Dominique Trinquand, specialist in international issuesat franceinfo
Historian Cédric Mas, for his part, calls for caution with regard to the comments made by Evguéni Prigojine. His statements should not be taken at face value, according to the historian, “no more than those of Moscow”. But he notes all the same that the leader of the Wagner group “had announced that columns were advancing towards Rostov and Moscow”, which happened on Saturday morning when they appeared “in broad daylight”. “It remains to understand what is happening.”, adds independent Russian analyst Tatiana Stanovaya to AFP. She puts forward yet another hypothesis, still in connection with a possible manipulation: the Russian authorities are looking for “perhaps to put Prigojine offside, with the latter’s active participation”.
Is he trying to play his last card while he is in Moscow’s sights?
After months of conflict with the Russian general staff, Yevgeny Prigojine may be trying to save himself by playing his last card. If the strikes on the Wagner camps are proven, it means that “Moscow wanted to put Prigojine out of harm’s way”, believes General François Chauvancy. And if it is false information, it could be a pretext of the boss of Wagner “to spark an insurrection aimed at thwarting an upcoming ‘Night of the Long Knives’, in which he would have been eliminated”continues the geopolitical consultant to the Figaro.
In any case, the Wagner group’s offensive risks weakening the Kremlin. “Even if Prigojine and the Wagners surrender, this action will have a very great repercussion. It is a factor in the weakening of the political regime, because it shows a state that is much less powerful than one can imagine”analysis on France Inter Anna Colin Lebedev, specialist in Russia.
On franceinfo, Nicolas Tenzer, specialist in international and security issues, recalls that some of the Russian political opponents in exile immediately supported the leader of the militia, despite his controversial profile. “They imagine that there will be a form of chaos within Russia (…) It is better to have a chance to overthrow the Putin regime, because it will not come from the democratic forces and the population.”