The death of Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli strike on Friday sows uncertainty throughout the Middle East. Will the disappearance of the secretary general of Hezbollah change the trajectory of the conflict that is igniting the region? Experts speak out.
What position does Hezbollah find itself in now that its leader is dead?
A true spearhead of Iranian expansion in the Arab world, Hassan Nasrallah leaves behind a huge void. “He had unrivaled charisma and talents as a commander,” says Sami Aoun, specialist in the Near and Middle East and member of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair. The secretary general of Hezbollah, who held his position for 32 years, will be very difficult to replace, although the name of his cousin, Hachem Safieddine, is already circulating as a potential successor. “Hezbollah is confused and disoriented. We will have to wait a little to see what their strategy will be,” adds Sami Aoun.
Hassan Nasrallah is not the only senior Hezbollah member to have lost his life in Friday’s Israeli strikes. “Israel also killed all the people responsible for Hezbollah’s military actions, several senior leaders,” adds Ruby Dagher, professor of international relations at the University of Ottawa. The religious group therefore has important reconstruction work to do before it can avenge the death of its ex-leader. “That doesn’t mean that Hezbollah won’t be able to respond, but it won’t be the same as before, that’s for sure,” adds the expert.
Will Israel continue its offensive in Lebanon?
Everything is possible, according to Sami Aoun, but one thing is certain: Israel finds itself in a position of strength. The vast majority of Israelis support the war against Hezbollah, mainly because the religious organization is an ally, even an armed wing of Iran, sworn enemy of the Jewish state. “The Israelis absolutely want this war of attrition that Iran is waging against them to stop, and Hezbollah is part of it,” adds Sami Aoun.
According to Ruby Dagher, Israel is not about to abandon its offensive in Lebanon. “For Israelis, there is no question of withdrawing just because Nasrallah is dead,” she says. Israel has also started to bomb new regions of Lebanon since last Friday’s strike, in particular to control the territory. “An Israeli general said that the region between the border and the Litani River [qui irrigue le centre et le sud du pays] was to become a safe zone, and Israel also said it would continue to strike Hezbollah weapons caches […]. Her work is not finished,” adds the researcher.
Over the past year, Global Affairs Canada has issued several calls to evacuate Canadian citizens in Lebanon, but tens of thousands of them have still not left the country. Why isn’t Canada evacuating its nationals itself?
“The answer is 2006,” says Ruby Dagher. During the Israeli-Lebanese conflict which took place in 2006, the Canadian government took charge of the evacuation of Canadian citizens caught in Lebanon. “And it cost the country extremely dearly,” says the researcher. However, after the war, many evacuated citizens decided to return to live in Lebanon. “It created a political problem,” says the researcher. People [au Canada] found that Lebanese-Canadians had taken advantage of their dual citizenship even though the government had put a lot of resources into helping them. »
In the past two months, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly has repeatedly urged Canadian nationals to leave Lebanon on commercial flights. “We’ve known for months that it was probably going to break out, and many Canadian citizens still don’t want to leave Lebanon,” emphasizes Ruby Dagher.
There are many reasons to stay in Lebanon. According to Ruby Dagher, the Lebanese have become desensitized to the possibility of confrontation with the Jewish state over time. “The border between Israel and Lebanon has never been calm, so for them, bombings have become a bit of the norm,” says the researcher. Other Canadians have more personal reasons for staying, such as elderly parents or loved ones who do not have dual citizenship. “At this point, it’s a question of individual choice,” comments Sami Aoun.