For months now, even more than a year, the media has been saturated by the American election between current President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump. What if we left American politics to the Americans?
It is undeniable that this election will have impacts on geopolitics, but also on the global economy for both its partners and its competitors. It is also true that the challenges that the United States will tackle will set the international agenda. But is it really necessary to make the daily headlines and cover every trip and speech of the two candidates? At the time of writing, the election will take place in seven months.
Seven months is a lifetime in national politics. In international politics, a decade. Since 2020, we have been able to observe that what seemed unimaginable the day before can become inevitable the next day (a global pandemic or a high-intensity conflict in Europe, for example). So why not leave American politics to the Americans?
It would surely be good to do so for several reasons.
Already, the influence of public opinion outside the United States is very limited. On the one hand because, obviously, it is the Americans who vote and not the rest of the world. On the other hand, because, even if we have political preferences, we will have to go with the winner. We may debate the danger that one represents, or argue that the other would be better, but the final choice does not belong to us. Neither does the validity of the election; this power rests with American institutions.
As for anticipating what the winner will do, it’s the equivalent of betting on political fictions that will be obsolete as quickly as they appear. Who knows what the situation in Ukraine will be like in seven months? Who knows what will happen to our and the United States’ relations with China? As a reminder, between President Biden’s decision to shoot down the spy balloon which caused significant tension between the United States and China and Xi Jinping’s visit to California, only 9 months have passed .
However, we should not lose interest in it. But current media coverage may appear unreasonable. Under the pretext that it is a nuclear power with which Canada has a free trade agreement, should we be more interested in it than the others? In this regard, we should also pay more attention to elections in India. The latter ticks the important boxes.
In addition, Canada experienced one of its most recent major crises with this country, a crisis which had repercussions not only on our diplomacy, but also on our strategies, even forcing the Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly to review her strategy of Canada for the Indo-Pacific unveiled just a few weeks ago. India even invited itself into the parliamentary debate in the House of Commons, to the point of temporarily changing our immigration policies.
Some voices will say that we should be more interested in the American elections because of the military alliances uniting the United States and Canada. These links could draw us into an international conflict against our will. It’s true. But as such, India is also in a position to shake up global tensions. Kashmir is a region of friction disputed between three nuclear powers (India, China and Pakistan). This is without taking into account the growing tension between China and the Philippines and the latter have strengthened their bilateral partnership, particularly in defense with India, increasing tensions between these two countries.
In 2021, Statistics Canada recorded that nearly 4% of the Canadian population of Indian origin compared to only 1% for Americans. De facto, this election will have a greater impact on our fellow citizens.
Likewise, it represents the largest democracy in the world in terms of number of citizens since India has 970 million voters, or 10% of the world population. This is undoubtedly the democratic election that will impact the most people in the world. If you want to follow it, know that Indians will vote from April 19.
The point here is not to deny the fact that the American election will have an impact on Canada and to assert that the Indian election will have more. It is simply a matter of putting into perspective the magnitude that this election can represent. It is obvious that as a neighbor and primary economic partner, the United States must interest us, especially since our history is intertwined with theirs. But it would be relevant to observe it with greater detachment.
The consequences of this election should be addressed like those of the election in India. And it will first be up to Global Affairs Canada, among others, to prepare for it and not Canadian citizens. In the meantime, let’s leave American politics to the Americans.