What can the election of reformer Massoud Pezeshkian change?

Iran’s new president calls for “constructive relations” with the West. But his powers will be limited vis-à-vis Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and parliament.

He wishes “bringing Iran out of its isolation”. Reformist candidate Massoud Pezeshkian has won Iran’s presidential election against ultraconservative Said Jalili, according to results released Saturday, July 6, the day after the second round. He will succeed Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in May.

Massoud Pezeshkian, the first reformist to become president of Iran since 2005 (Hassan Rouhani, in power from 2013 to 2021, was considered more of a moderate), has promised to seek “the hand of friendship to everyone” in the country. And displays an open attitude towards the rest of the world that contrasts with his predecessor. Could this change of tone at the top of the Islamic Republic have concrete political consequences for the country?

During the campaign, Massoud Pezeshkian highlighted several points of divergence with the foreign policy followed in recent years by the Islamic Republic. The one the Iranians call the “doctor” notably called for “constructive relationships” with the United States and European countries, in order to “bringing Iran out of its isolation” and obtain a lifting of international sanctions weighing on the country’s economy.

He promised to negotiate directly with Washington to revive talks on Iranian nuclear power, which have been at a standstill since the US withdrawal in 2018 from the international agreement concluded in 2015. “If we can get the US sanctions lifted, people will have a more comfortable life”he estimated. A victory for his opponent Said Jalili, “the inflexible and ideological approach” would have put Iran and the West on the contrary “on a conflict trajectory”Ali Vaez, a country expert with the NGO International Crisis Group, told AFP.

While affirming his loyalty to the regime, Massoud Pezeshkian also became known for his criticism of the government during the large-scale protest movement triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini in September 2022. During the campaign, he denounced the use of force by the police to enforce the obligation for women to wear the veil: “We oppose any violent and inhumane behavior (…) especially towards our sisters and daughters, and we will not allow such acts to happen.”

But these positions, even if very critical, will hardly be followed by any major effect. “It is not the president who decides the overall strategies of the Islamic regime,” underlines Azadeh Kian, professor of sociology at the University of Paris Cité, interviewed by franceinfo.

“The president has some room to maneuver, but on military, foreign policy or regional issues, it is the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and the Revolutionary Guards who set the direction.”

Azadeh Kian, professor of sociology at the University of Paris Cité

to franceinfo

Massoud Pezeshkian will also have to deal with a parliament with an ultra-conservative majority, which votes on laws and must give its consent to the composition of the government. The president “will probably have difficulty getting overly reformist ministers accepted”anticipates Azadeh Kian.

The options available to the new leader will also depend largely on the external context, notably the results of another election: the American presidential election in November. “If Donald Trump returns to power in the United States, his advisers have already indicated that they will reimpose a policy of ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran.”recalls Thierry Coville, a researcher specializing in Iran at Iris, a think tank on geopolitics.

Massoud Pezeshkian will therefore not be able to radically change the country’s line. But “He could improve Iran’s image through a soothing speech, and why not encourage the Guide to move towards negotiations with the West, of course in exchange for significant compensation.”believes Azadeh Kian.

“He will not be able to resume negotiations on his own, there will undoubtedly be tensions with the Guide. But having a president who is in favour of relations with the West still creates a positive climate.”

Thierry Coville, researcher specializing in Iran at Iris

to franceinfo

In domestic policy matters, the role of president is not a completely empty shell either. “He can try to improve the economic situation by implementing more rational management, for example by appointing technocrats to the ministries and responsible organizations.”explains Azadeh Kian.

But according to specialists interviewed by franceinfo, this election is unlikely to shake the foundations of the regime. “Massoud Pezeshkian is a reformer”explains Thierry Coville, “But he defines himself as a conservative reformer, he uses a lot of religious references… All of this can contribute to making him an ‘acceptable’ reformer in the eyes of Ali Khamenei.”

“By organizing this circus of elections, the Iranian regime is seeking to give itself popular legitimacy to justify itself on the international stage.”asserts sociologist and political scientist Mahnaz Shirali. Interviewed by franceinfo, she underlines the low official participation rate in the first round, barely 40%. Despite her criticism of the repression linked to women not wearing the veil, “Massoud Pezeshkian has always presented himself as a fundamentalist,” Azadeh Kian emphasizes. And ““Gender equality has never been one of the foundations of the regime.”