Several scenarios are mentioned by foreign powers for the future of the Palestinian enclave, between international administration, return of the Palestinian Authority and Israeli control.
Fighting continues between the Israeli army and Hamas on Thursday, November 9, more than a month after the terrorist attacks in Israel and the outbreak of a new war in the Gaza Strip. The IDF operation, carried out in retaliation for the attacks which left more than 1,400 dead in the Jewish state according to Israeli authorities, aims to “annihilate” Hamas, in power in the Palestinian territory. The Gaza Health Ministry says more than 10,000 residents have been killed in Israeli bombings since October 7. A report that Franceinfo cannot support due to lack of independent verification on site.
The future of the territory of 2.23 million inhabitants, at the end of this war with a very uncertain outcome, is in any case in suspense. “There is one thing about which there is absolutely no doubt: Hamas cannot be part of the equation,” said John Kirby, the White House spokesperson, on November 7. The day before, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, had proposed a series of fundamental principles for the future of Gaza. The Palestinian enclave can no longer be a “sanctuary for terrorists”she pleaded. “Several ideas are currently being discussed on how this can be ensured, … including an international peace force under UN mandate.”
A possible transition ensured by the United Nations
Several voices defend this idea and that of a temporary international administration in Gaza, at the end of the fighting. On franceinfo, former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin called for this step to be taken “before we discuss a lasting solution for the Palestinians.”
“I think the best strategy is to have an international administration which can be Arab, or partly Arab and partly with members of the international community, under the aegis of the UN.”
Dominique de Villepin, former Prime Ministeron franceinfo
According to the former Minister of Foreign Affairs, this temporary administration would aim to “restore it to working order [Gaza] and meet the needs of the civilian population”, then “demilitarize this territory”. Researcher Joan Deas, executive director of the Institute for Mediterranean Middle East Research and Studies (Iremmo), believes that management under the aegis of the UN “is not infeasible”. In the Palestinian territory, 71% of the inhabitants are refugees, recalls the UN agency for Palestinian refugees in the Middle East (UNRWA). They are therefore already dependent on aid from the United Nations.
“UNRWA is a form of government within government in Gaza. Expanding this does not seem infeasible to me for essential humanitarian needs.”
Joan Deas, researcherat franceinfo
American researcher Steven Simon, professor of Middle Eastern studies at the University of Washington, develops this perspective in the journal Foreign Affairs. A contact group including the US and EU, the UN, Israel, neighboring countries and the Palestinian Authority could “develop a plan to transfer control of Gaza from Israel to the UN, once the fighting ends.” The mission promises to be immense, but it would allow the arrival of an administration “of transition” in Gaza, as well as the maintenance of order and public services after the war.
Joan Deas, however, questions the UN’s capacity to manage everyday administrative issues, such as the payment of civil servants’ salaries. These missions are currently the responsibility of the Hamas government. There is also the question of the involvement of Arab countries, notes The Economist. The British magazine highlights the possible hesitations of the United Arab Emirates, Egypt’s lack of popularity in the Gaza Strip and Israel’s likely veto of any future role of Qatar in the Palestinian enclave.
The risk is also that of a lack of support, both Israeli and Palestinian, for this option of an international administration, adds Amélie Ferey, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI): “It seems difficult to me to do as it stands.”
A possible return to power of the Palestinian Authority
In the longer term, one of the avenues mentioned is that of a new Palestinian power at the head of the enclave, administered since 2007 by Hamas. “What would make the most sense would be for an effective and revitalized Palestinian Authority to be responsible for the governance and, ultimately, security of Gaza.”, assured the American Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. The Palestinian Authority, which today administers the West Bank, also ruled the Gaza Strip before Hamas took power there.
For Joan Deas, the option of a return of the Palestinian Authority at the head of the territory currently seems “most likely”even if it faces many obstacles. The first is its unpopularity among the population: in September, 76% of Palestinians surveyed were unhappy with the actions of Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, according to a study.
Only 21% of West Bank Palestinians and 24% of Gazans said they were satisfied with his work. “We consider that [les responsables de l’Autorité palestinienne] are corrupt, that they are not representative… There have been many demonstrations against the power in the West Bank, which have been strongly repressed”recalls Joan Deas.
“It would be very worrying to see the Palestinian Authority return to Gaza. They have not governed it since 2007 and are disconnected from everyday issues, from realities on the ground. The population risks reacting very badly. And how will the Islamic Jihad and other armed groups?”
Joan Deas, researcherat franceinfo
“We need a Palestinian Authority without Mahmoud Abbas”abounds Amélie Ferey. For the specialist in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Palestinian prisoner Marwan Barghouti is “the most credible alternative”. The former leader of the armed wing of Fatah, sentenced to life imprisonment in Israel almost twenty years ago, is in fact considered the possible face of Palestinian unity, underlines France 24.
A probable occupation of the territory by Israel
But the emergence of a new Palestinian government in Gaza will also depend “who will be in power in Israel after this war”, points out Amélie Ferey. The prospect of a transfer to the Palestinian Authority seems more likely to him in the event of a centrist government. On the contrary, if people linked to the Israeli settler movement are in power, “They will rather want to move towards a reoccupation of the Gaza Strip”, occupied from 1967 to 2005, then subject to an Israeli blockade from 2007. The researcher therefore sees “a takeover of Gaza by Israel” like the scenario “more likely” at the end of the fighting.
The current Israeli government, the most right-wing coalition in the country’s history, has outlined several ideas – still vague – on this subject. “Israel will have, for an indefinite period, overall responsibility for security “ in the Gaza Strip, said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in an interview with the American channel ABC. His Minister of Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, clarified that he “did not talk about occupying Gaza” but D’“a general security responsibility”.
What form could this Israeli presence take? For Amélie Ferey, it could involve the presence – costly – of IDF soldiers in the Palestinian enclave, or even settlers. The specialist evokes the model of areas under Israeli control in the West Bank, an avenue mentioned by the Israeli Minister of Agriculture to CNN.
“The October 7 attacks in Israel reinforced the idea that the country’s security can only be ensured by reoccupying [la bande de Gaza]. Part of the Israeli political class wants it.”
Amélie Ferey, researcher at the French Institute of International Relationsat franceinfo
Eli Cohen, Israeli Foreign Minister, even mentioned a “reduction” of the territory of Gaza following the end of hostilities. However, a partial annexation would be “completely prohibited by international law”in addition to being a “humanitarian disaster” in the event of forced and massive population displacement in Gaza, warns Joan Deas.
A final, extreme option, was put on the table by the Israeli Ministry of Intelligence. She proposes expulsion Gazans outside their territory, towards Egyptian Sinai. This scenario is “unlikely”, due to Cairo’s anticipated refusal, argues Joan Deas. But it shows that “these theses are circulating at the highest level in Israel”, notes the researcher. A hypothesis all the more “severe” that international humanitarian law prohibits such forcible transfer of a population.