The victory of the Coalition avenir Québec is decisive. 90 seats out of 125 for 41% of the votes. A real bargain. Our outdated voting system in a new multi-party situation partly explains this.
The fragmentation of the opposition into four parties is providential for the CAQ. That said, François Legault first owes his second majority victory to himself.
Its popularity with almost half of French speakers is indeed tenacious. His patronage campaign opposing Montreal to the regions and the majority to immigration also helped him solidify his base.
If he now promises to be the premier of “all Quebecers”, it is precisely because he must rebuild the bridges that he himself has shaken.
The continuation of the Legault era also confirms the disappearance of the federalist-sovereignist axis. Since its founding in 2011, the CAQ has offered a vision “neither sovereignist nor federalist, but nationalist”.
Victims of realignment
Unsurprisingly, in the 2018 election, the Parti Québécois and the Liberal Party of Quebec, carriers of the federalist-sovereignist axis, were the first victims.
Monday night’s results are part of the same realignment of the political planets. Because behind the smiles of Liberal leader Dominique Anglade and PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, hide disastrous results.
Ms. Anglade saved the furniture of the official opposition, but her party is disavowed by more than 90% of Francophones. This is why the Liberal leader may eventually see her leadership challenged.
Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon led the best campaign. He miraculously won his constituency. At 14.6% of the vote, he almost doubled support for the PQ in a few weeks. A feat in itself.
He even won the respect of Quebeckers, PQ or not. In short, PSPP saved its leadership. His caucus is however reduced to three deputies. To lead a battle in the National Assembly, it’s really very little.
With 11 seats and 15% of the votes, Québec Solidaire and its leader Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois saved their own furniture. However, GND failed to wrest official opposition status from the PLQ.
Mild waters
QS will not come out of it mortally wounded. After all, it is better to stand still than to retreat.
As for Prime Minister François Legault, even if second terms are often stormy, for the moment, his ship is enjoying particularly mild waters.
His victory is clear. His team, with several new quality recruits, will give him the chance to compose a renewed council of ministers.
Facing him, the PQ comes out proud of its campaign, but it continues its decline. The PLQ, shunned by most French-speaking federalists, is heading towards inevitable internal dissension.
GND stands out as the real antithesis to Prime Minister Legault, but in reality, his party poses little threat to the CAQ.
At 13% of the vote and zero seats, Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives are the most battered of the lot. Holding out until 2026, without an elected leader or caucus, promises to be difficult.
All while Mr. Legault, even if he spoke yesterday of a possible parliamentary reform, has not the slightest intention of reforming the voting system.