The climate crisis worries the French. According to the annual study (PDF) of the Environment and Energy Management Agency (Ademe) on the social representations of climate change, the environment and ecological transition come third in the ranking of the most important issues in the eyes of the population.
However, the subject was rarely discussed during this campaign for the presidential election, as some 1,400 scientists deplored in a column published on franceinfo.fr. “We note with concern the absence of democratic debate on the serious upheavals in progress and to come”they wrote.
If the candidates have little debate on the subject, they often address it in their program. But are these compatible with the climate objectives of the Paris Agreement? Franceinfo publishes Tuesday March 29, in partnership with the association Les Shifters, a detailed analysis of the programs of the pretenders to the Elysée. Here’s how franceinfo’s digital editorial staff worked.
1Why do this analysis?
According to the IPCC report published in August 2021, the temperature rise on Earth is expected to reach +1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era between 2021 and 2040, much earlier than previous estimates. “Climate change is a threat to the well-being of humanity and the health of the planet. Any delay in implementing concerted action (…) will cause us to miss the short window of opportunity, closing fast, to ensure a livable and sustainable future for all”, still alerted the experts in the second part of their report in February. The decisions of the next President of the Republic therefore promise to be crucial.
Today, many candidates talk about ecology. Promoting the local, working on the energy transition, investing in “green technologies”… Long shunned, the subject has found its place in all parties, with different shades of green. “Concretely, how do we achieve the objectives set by international treaties or what the IPCC recommends? Neutrality in 2050, how do we get there? It is not enough to write poetry about the local”noted with franceinfo the political scientist Daniel Boy, specialist in political ecology, estimating that“an environmental program must be technical”. This is what franceinfo wanted to verify, in collaboration with the association Les Shifters.
2Who are The Shifters?
The Shifters are the volunteers of an association created in 2014. It has more than 9,000 members, the majority of whom are engineers, according to its latest management report. It was created to support The Shift Project, a think tank specializing in the energy transition of our economy, led by former journalist Matthieu Auzanneau, specialist in oil issues, and chaired by Jean-Marc Jancovici, member of the High Council for the climate. The Shift Project is financed by donations from companies such as EDF, SNCF or Bouygues. This is not the case of the Shifters, who are mainly financed by the contributions of their members.
The association Les Shifters has already worked in the past on projects to monitor the energy-climate proposals of presidential candidates. This year, about 70 volunteers were mobilized for this meticulous work. To carry out this analysis, the association defends a “scientific and technical requirement” and a non-partisan approach, reasons why franceinfo called on them. We can thus note that, if the Shift Project and its founder are regularly criticized for defending nuclear energy, the two candidates closest to the climate objectives according to the Shifters’ analysis are both historical opponents of the atom.
3How did we work?
This analysis required several months of work by the stakeholders. To publish these analyses, franceinfo and The Shifters relied on the written programs of the candidates. We were able to observe that these texts evolved discreetly over time. – we therefore specify that we have used the programs up to date as of March 23.
All the measures likely to have an influence (positive or negative) on greenhouse gas emissions have been taken into account and compared with the guidelines of the National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC). This document is France’s roadmap for conducting the policy of reducing its emissions and thus complying with the Paris agreement, the objective of which is to limit global warming to +2°C. So far, France has failed to respect the commitments listed therein.
The full results of this work are published on the Shifters website and a shorter summary on franceinfo.fr. These two approaches differ on two points: The Shifters did not carry out an overall assessment of the candidates but, for the sake of readability and conciseness, franceinfo.fr decided to group them into six categories: very close to the climate objectives of France, close, distant, very distant, very distant or even opposite and too few measures. This evaluation is particularly sensitive to positive elements (category “close”) or very negative elements (category “very distant or even opposite”). Despite a program far removed from climate objectives on many points, Emmanuel Macron is, for example, in the “distant” category because he is considered “close” in the energy production sector. Nicolas Dupont-Aignan is he “leaded” by his measures contrary to the SNBC in two sectors.
Another difference is that we have chosen, for our infographic by sectors, to focus mainly on the seven “sectoral guidelines” (transport, buildings, agriculture, forest-wood, industry, energy production and waste) of the SNBC, more concrete, where The Shifters also represented the transversal orientations. These are mentioned in our articles by candidate and have been taken into account for the overall classification.
It should be noted that these analyzes deal exclusively with the possible reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, responsible for the rise in global temperatures, and not with the measures to adapt our societies proposed by the candidates or those aimed at reducing the impact on health. Other environmental issues, such as the decline in biodiversity, are not addressed.
4What articles will you be able to read?
Franceinfo first offers you an overall assessment of this analysis and an interview with three members of the Shifters and Jean-Marc Jancovici. They make it possible to realize that no candidate is quite in the nails but that two of them, Yannick Jadot (Europe Ecology-The Greens) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France insoumise), are getting closer.
>> Yna scrutinized the programs of the presidential candidates to see if they respect the Paris agreement
An article is then devoted to each candidate, detailing where he or she stands in relation to the SNBC, his or her main proposals in terms of agriculture, housing, transport or even energy, and finally whether they are considered feasible in the with regard to the timetable presented, the players involved or the technologies to be invented.
>> Presidential: are the programs of Nathalie Arthaud, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Anne Hidalgo, Yannick Jadot, Jean Lassalle, Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Valérie Pécresse, Philippe Poutou, Fabien Roussel and Eric Zemmour in line with France’s climate objectives?