Thousands of war opponents have been arrested in dozens of Russian cities since the invasion of Ukraine began. Many, however, remain determined to speak out. The repression does not prevent the demonstrations from continuing, while the enthusiasm of the Russian population with regard to this war does not seem to be there.
On February 24, eyes suddenly fell on Ukraine. Russia had just launched a major military offensive, causing a shock wave and changing the daily lives of many. That day was also the wedding day for Arshak Makichyan, a 27-year-old Muscovite, and Apollinaria Oleinikova.
Shocked by the news, the two showed their support for Ukraine as they united their destinies. They posted a photo on the social network Twitter, which received thousands of likes. “F*** the war”, can we read in red on the white shirt of the man, while his wife wears the colors of Ukraine.
A stunt that could have attracted the attention of the authorities, slips Arshak Makichyan, joined by The duty. The next day, when he came out of his house with his wife, who was organizing an action against the war, police officers were waiting for the newlyweds to take them to the station. They were detained for more than six hours, along with two journalists, he said. The man is accused of having contravened the “procedure” which governs the demonstrations. He is liable to a fine of up to 20,000 rubles, and will stand trial on Wednesday.
But that will not prevent him from trying to organize “big demonstrations”. “I have a lot of friends in Ukraine, it’s impossible to imagine the future. [Les forces russes] kill people in Ukraine and destroy Russia, this war is senseless, ”says the activist, who is not in his first trouble with the authorities and who has notably participated in the mobilization for the climate in Russia.
“Several of my friends have been imprisoned and released in the last few days,” he reports. According to the latest estimates from the NGO OVD-Info, published on Tuesday, nearly 6,440 people have been detained since last Thursday for protesting, in 103 cities, the majority in Moscow and Saint Petersburg. The demonstrations, without a large structure, are organized in particular through the encrypted messaging service Signal and on Telegram.
Lack of enthusiasm
The arrests of the last few days did not prevent the holding of rallies on Tuesday, reports OVD-Info, whose lawyers are defending those arrested. Calling for demonstrations is risky, as is going to demonstrations, which are closely monitored by the authorities.
“The protests are not on the same scale as when Crimea was annexed in 2014,” observes Lisa Sundstrom, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia who studies Russian social movements. But it surprises me to see how important and widespread those we see today are, because the degree of repression is much higher than eight years ago. »
The demonstrations testify to the discontent of a substantial part of the population, believes Guillaume Grégoire-Sauvé, expert on Russia and visiting researcher at the Center for International Studies and Research at the University of Montreal (CERIUM). “We are not currently witnessing a wave of patriotic euphoria as was the case in 2014. There is no spontaneous enthusiasm on the part of the Russian population,” he notes. A war that stretches out over time could become even more unpopular, he thinks.
The signs of heartbreak have multiplied within Russian society. Celebrities and athletes have issued criticism publicly, as well as Russian oligarchs and actors from the cultural and scientific circles.
The degree of online mobilization is also noted by observers. Lev Ponomarev, a Russian political activist, notably posted an online petition calling for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. It had more than 1.1 million signatures on Tuesday.
“We’re starting to see cracks in the foundations that we’ve never seen before,” says Jeff Sahadeo, a professor at Carleton University’s Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies. But, for now, things remain manageable for Vladimir Putin, thinks the expert.