War in Ukraine | Ukraine prepares an ambitious counterattack: the recapture of Kherson

The road to Russian-occupied Kherson in southern Ukraine crosses a no man’s land charred wheat fields and cratered villages. Tails of rockets protrude from the asphalt, and the boom of incoming and outgoing artillery ricochets off abandoned houses.

Along a jagged front line, Ukrainian forces prepare for one of the most ambitious and significant military actions of the war: the recapture of Kherson. The first city to fall to Russian forces, Kherson and the fertile lands surrounding it are a vital Russian beachhead, from which the military continually launches attacks across a large swath of Ukrainian territory. Regaining control of the city could also help reinvigorate Ukraine and give its troops much-needed morale after months of fierce fighting.

“We want to liberate our territory and return it to our control,” said Sergei Savchenko, senior lieutenant of the 28^e Ukrainian Brigade, which is entrenched along the western border of the Kherson region. ” We are ready. We’ve wanted it for a long time. »

Already, fighting on the region’s western and northern borders is intensifying, as Ukrainian forces – currently some 50 kilometers from the city at their closest point – prepare the ground for a major offensive. For the past month, Ukrainian artillery and rocket forces have been weakening Russian positions with an array of new Western-supplied weapons, such as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, supplied by the United States.

According to Ukrainian officials, the strikes, some of which were filmed, destroyed forward command centers and key ammunition depots. They claim hundreds of Russian soldiers were killed and the attacks disrupted Russia’s logistical infrastructure. Supply depots and command posts have been pushed away from the front lines, making it harder to keep soldiers armed and fed. Their claims cannot all be independently verified.

“You could compare it to waves,” said a senior Ukrainian military official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss military planning.

Unlike Ukraine’s eastern region, Donbass, where a massive Russian force has slowly taken over a province in recent weeks, the Ukrainian military appears to have started to turn the tide in the Kherson region, although hesitantly.

After losing control of most of the region in the first weeks of the war, Ukrainian troops have now liberated 44 towns and villages along the border areas, around 15% of the territory, according to the military governor of the region, Dmytro Butrii. Senior Ukrainian officials have not given a specific timetable for the recapture of Kherson, but President Volodymyr Zelensky has made it clear that it is a top priority.

“Our forces are moving into the region step by step,” he said.

Debate on the counter-offensive

Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive in the south has sparked debate among Western officials and some analysts, who have questioned whether Ukraine was ready for such a major effort and whether it was the best use. resources while the Russian advances have mainly taken place in the Donbass.

Still, Ukrainian officials and many Western intelligence officials said it was important for Ukraine to try to mount a counterattack. They claim that the Russian army is in a relatively weak position, having spent arms and personnel in its offensive in Donbass. Richard Moore, head of MI6, Britain’s foreign intelligence service, predicted the Russians would be forced to pause, providing an opening for Ukrainian forces.

Any effort to retake significant territory would nonetheless be a huge undertaking. Russian forces have now occupied the Kherson region for nearly five months and have been largely unhindered in their efforts to reinforce their military positions and prepare an assault. They installed new rulers in the city itself as well as in the main towns and villages.

According to some Western and Ukrainian officials, a counterattack would require a huge number of troops and many more offensive weapons systems than Ukraine currently has. Overall, Ukraine spends between 6,000 and 8,000 shells per day. If she were to launch an active attack on Kherson, she would need three or four times as many.

a million men

Oleksii Reznikov, Ukrainian Defense Minister, spoke of the need to raise a million-strong army to retake the lands Ukraine lost in the war. The Kherson region is largely rural, but the city of Kherson is a sprawling metropolis straddling the Dnieper River. Retaking it could involve fierce urban fighting, with huge losses in soldiers and property.

“We’re looking at Kherson as if it’s the next Fallujah,” said Michael Maldonado, 34, a former U.S. Marine from Kansas, who joined the 28^e Brigade. “There are going to be a lot of intense fights. »

The Ukrainian army will also have to take into account the large number of civilians. The city has lost around a third of its pre-war population of some 300,000, but a widespread assault involving bombing could put those left behind at great risk, something Ukrainian officials appear to be aware of.

Last month, Iryna Vereshchuk, deputy prime minister, urged residents of Kherson and the surrounding region to evacuate.

In the villages now controlled by the 28^e Ukrainian brigade along the western border of Kherson, only the reckless remain on the surface for a long time. Clouds of black mushrooms are looming on the horizon, and artillery shells are going back and forth across the fields. This week, Brigade Commander Vitaly Gulyaev was killed in a rocket attack.

“Every day we shoot at them and they respond to us, but they don’t make any progress,” Sergei Savchenko said. For now, we hold this territory, but as soon as there is an order, as soon as we have the possibility to do so, we will advance. »

This article was first published in the New York Times.