The bombs rain down, but the belligerents talk to each other. Around a table in Turkey or Belarus, by videoconference, on the telephone with their allies and mediators, or by messages broadcast on social networks, everyone is testing their negotiating power before moving forward on a compromise.
Posted at 5:00 a.m.
Because if the diplomatic way can manage to put an end to the fighting in Ukraine, it will necessarily be in exchange for concessions from both parties.
Will it then be possible to determine a “winner” or a “loser” of this war? Will any concession in favor of Russia, whether territorial or whether it be an engagement that undermines the sovereignty of Ukraine, be seen as a “victory” for Vladimir Putin? Is the cessation of fighting, regardless of the concessions granted, a “victory” in itself?
“The question is excellent,” reflects Yann Breault, a specialist in Russia attached to the Royal Military College of Saint-Jean. “I am thinking first of all of the civilians, for whom the cessation of fighting would be the best thing we can hope for from a humanitarian point of view. I am one of the minority voices who currently would like to see Ukraine accept some of the Russian conditions to save infrastructure and as many human lives as possible. »
Ferry de Kerckhove, a former Canadian diplomat and professor at the University of Ottawa’s School of Public and International Affairs, is more optimistic about the outcome of the talks than he was last week. “We are beginning to see the pattern of an agreement, even if Putin continues to bombard. »
In fact, on Friday, the head of the Russian delegation to the talks with Kyiv announced that he had noted a “rapprochement” of positions on the question of a neutral status for Ukraine and progress on that of the demilitarization of the country.
A negotiation on the ground
But it will probably be necessary to go further to silence the Russian guns. “My impression,” observes M. de Kerchkove, “is that the Crimea will fall into the hands of the Russians, that there will be a semblance of [protocole de] Minsk with Donbass, that there will be a commitment by Ukraine not to enter NATO or the European Union. »
An international recognition of Crimea as belonging to Russia would indeed be a “great victory” for the Russian president, Mr de Kerckhove said. “But if Putin takes over Crimea, which has some justification – because it’s more Russian than Ukrainian – it absolutely has to go hand in hand with the end of the war in Donbass. »
So far, neither side seems ready to make any significant compromises.
We are in a period where the negotiation of the balance of power takes place on the military ground.
Yann Breault, specialist in Russia attached to the Royal Military College of Saint-Jean
“We also see in Russia an intention to mobilize the population in this war effort which promises to be much longer than expected. And on the other side, we see the Ukrainians galvanized by the heroic acts of the defenders of the fatherland. »
PHOTO ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO, REUTERS
Pro-Russian tank in Mariupol, southern Ukraine
“As long as the parties believe they are able to strengthen their position in this field, they will not agree to conclude anything,” believes Mr. Breault.
The expectations of the allies
At what price should peace be made? What compromises will be acceptable to the parties involved and their allies? “One has the impression that the only acceptable outcome for Washington is nothing less than the fall of Vladimir Putin’s regime, with a judgment in the court of The Hague and Putin’s imprisonment for war crimes. These are completely unrealistic expectations when talking about a power that has 6,000 nuclear warheads, slightly more than the Americans have! », says Yann Breault.
At least the language has changed. We no longer say that Ukraine has no right to exist and that it must be eliminated.
Ferry de Kerckhove, professor at the School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa
“But can we trust Putin? And how engaged are Ukraine’s so-called allies, ie NATO, in the negotiation? asks Mr. de Kerckhove.
Russia calls in particular for the “disarmament”, the “demilitarization” of Ukraine. What are the commitments that could satisfy it? It could be the renunciation of Ukraine to possess or manufacture certain types of weapons, evokes Mr. Breault. “But the Ukrainian forces are not defeated yet. They will certainly not consent to this condition. »
Ukraine has already made a concession this week by saying it was ready to give up its intention to join NATO.
But on the other demands posed by Russia, Ukraine does not flinch. “Our position has not changed: ceasefire, withdrawal of troops [russes] and strong security guarantees with concrete formulas,” presidential adviser Mikhailo Podoliak said on Friday.
And if an agreement is to be concluded, the countries which supported Ukraine will also have “extremely difficult” decisions to make, recalls Ferry de Kerckhove. In particular on the conditions for the lifting of economic sanctions. “There was an invasion that caused thousands of deaths and destruction. Are we going to forgive Putin? Are we going to maintain the sanctions as long as Russia has not rebuilt what it destroyed? I believe that no agreement can be reached unless some of these arrangements are made. »
“Both the Ukrainians and the Russians will lose a lot in this conflict, regrets Yann Breault. There will be no winner no matter what. »
About “denazification”
With the disarmament of Ukraine and its neutrality, another condition posed by Russia is that of “denazification”. “It seems completely surreal to us, since there are no more far-right people in Ukraine than in France,” says Yann Breault. But some Ukrainian historical commemorations in recent years have irritated Moscow, he recalls. In particular the rehabilitation in the official speech of the Ukrainian nationalist Stepan Bandera, who died in 1959. “He had fought against the Soviet occupation by collaborating with Hitler’s Germany, he had supported the extermination of the Jews, he participated in the extermination of the Polish minority,” recalls Mr. Breault.
In recent years, the name Bandera has been given to Kyiv streets, honorary medals, statues. “We have erected someone who collaborated with Nazi Germany to the rank of hero of the nation. That is an antagonistic narrative to the one we have in Russia, where we seem to have rebuilt social cohesion and Russian national pride around the great victory “of the Second World War over Nazi Germany, says Yann Breault .