(Paris) Russian forces are repositioning themselves in Ukraine in order to strengthen their offensive on the Donbass, NATO estimated on Thursday at 36and day of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, while the bombardments continue in particular in Kharkiv (north) and Mariupol (south).
Posted at 9:58 a.m.
Here is an update on the situation based on elements from AFP journalists on site as well as official Ukrainian and Russian statements, Western sources, analysts and international organizations.
Kyiv
Russian forces continue to hold their positions east and west of Kyiv “despite the withdrawal of a limited number of troops”, said the British Ministry of Defense on Twitter.
They “maintain their positions” and continue to defend themselves against Ukrainian counter-attacks described as “limited” by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
“It is unlikely that the Russian forces will abandon their secure territory around the city and they will continue to entrench themselves”, continues this American research center.
London expects “heavy fighting in the suburbs” of Kyiv in the coming days.
Ballast
The Russian army again bombarded the Donetsk region in the Donbass at night, sometimes with phosphorus bombs, denounced the head of the military administration of the Donetsk region, Pavel Kyrylenko. Two children died following strikes in the neighboring region of Luhansk, according to the emergency services.
Russia “is trying to regroup (its forces) and strengthen its offensive on the Donbass region and at the same time it is maintaining pressure on Kyiv and other cities”, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday.
On Wednesday, the United Kingdom had considered “very likely” that Moscow “seeks to transfer its striking power from the North to the (separatist) regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in the East”.
South
The British Ministry of Defense also confirmed the continuation of “heavy fighting” in Mariupol, a port city pounded for weeks by the Russian army, whose Ukrainian forces “keep control of the center”.
A new evacuation attempt was still on track Thursday, while some 160,000 civilians would still be stranded there. The municipality also accuses Moscow of having evacuated “against their will” more than 20,000 inhabitants of Mariupol in Russia.
The Ukrainian government has announced that it is dispatching 45 buses to evacuate civilians towards the city of Zaporijjia, 220 km to the northwest. Seventeen buses have already left for Mariupol, according to Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk.
Ukrainian resistance continues around the city of Kherson, under Russian control.
The North
Many bombings took place during the first part of the night in Kharkiv, a large city near the Russian border, AFP noted.
The Russians “are not aiming at any military objective, last night it was only artillery bombardments of all kinds on residential areas”, commented a source within the 92and brigade, one of the units defending the city.
According to Oleg Sinegoubov, governor of the Kharkiv region, “massive” shelling in Dergachi, a northern suburb of Kharkiv, left one dead and three injured. Fierce fighting and shelling continue in Izium, the most disputed point in the region, he said on Telegram.
Human losses
No precise and recent assessment of civilian victims is available. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) mentioned on Sunday 1,119 civilians killed, including 99 children, and more than 2,900 injured. But there is little doubt that the actual balance sheets are much higher.
According to Tetyana Lomakina, adviser to the Ukrainian presidency, “around 5,000 people” were buried in Mariupol alone, but there could actually be “around 10,000 dead”.
Militarily, the ranges are extremely wide. Russia acknowledged on Friday the death of 1,351 of its soldiers for 3,825 wounded, the first figures for more than three weeks.
Western sources speak in unison of several thousand deaths on the Russian side, Kyiv even going as high as 12,000.
On the Ukrainian side, President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke on March 12 of “about 1,300” soldiers killed. A figure that is also insignificant.
Refugees and displaced
The conflict has already forced more than 4.06 million Ukrainians to flee their country, according to the UN.
In total, more than ten million people, more than a quarter of the population, have had to leave their homes either by crossing the border to take refuge in neighboring countries, or by finding refuge elsewhere in Ukraine.
The UN estimates the number of internally displaced persons at nearly 6.5 million.