War in Ukraine | The cracks of the Middle East

Since the advent of the “pivot” to Asia – this political vision emphasizing China as a strategic rival, which the Obama administration and then those of Trump and Biden adopted – the Middle East has become less salient in the American priority scale.

Sami Aoun
Director, Observatory on the Middle East and North Africa of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair and professor emeritus, Université de Sherbrooke

The war in Ukraine has, however, exacerbated tensions between the West – primarily the United States – and certain governments, traditional allies or not, in the Middle East and North Africa.

The wait-and-see attitude and hushed press releases from the powers of the region revealed their disappointment in the face of an indolent America and a weakened Europe while maintaining a facade of neutrality so as not to alienate the belligerents. The following cases illustrate this dynamic well.

Syria

The Syrian civil war has enabled Russia to make a spectacular comeback on the international scene. The Assad regime faced with its survival, it was one of the five countries to vote against the resolution of the General Assembly of the United Nations condemning the invasion of Ukraine. Syrian support for its ally extends even further, as thousands of Syrian mercenaries are reportedly ready to travel to Ukrainian soil to fight alongside Russian forces.

United Arab Emirates

While holding the rotating presidency of the United Nations Security Council, this Gulf country obtained the addition of the Yemeni Houthis to the list of terrorist groups, a request repeated since the withdrawal of the group from this list by the administration. Biden. This decision by the American president, at the start of his mandate, had aroused strong criticism from his Emirati ally, and brought the bin Zayed government closer to Russia. The United States, however, provides air and maritime protection of the Emirati territory, in addition to providing sophisticated weapons to this country.

Saudi Arabia

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United States, whose ties have been severely strained since 9/11, were heightened when the new Biden administration rushed to resume talks for a nuclear deal Iranian. Indeed, the United States did not appear, in the eyes of the Saudis, to seek to contain the expansion of the sworn enemy of Saudi Arabia; they did not hear the Saudi calls to try to put an end to the Yemeni conflict; and finally, they persist in treating Crown Prince bin Salman as an outcast, while the specter of murdered journalist Jamal Khashoggi hangs over relations between the two countries. The war in Ukraine therefore offers the Saudis their revenge: they thus punish the West by refusing to increase their hydrocarbon production – claiming to respect the OPEC+ agreement. This attitude turned towards Russia could persist since the Biden administration has added fuel to a burning fire by naming Qatar, this unloved brother, but whose basements are full of liquefied gas, a major ally not a member of the NATO.

Egypt

President Sisi distances himself from both the West and Russia. Egypt has indeed continued its exchanges with Moscow, but has come out in favor of the United Nations resolution condemning Russian actions in Ukraine. However, the country refuses to apply economic sanctions, preferring the maintenance of a multilateral international order. The need to import wheat and the attractive profits linked to the rise in the price of gas also explain this attitude.

Algeria and Morocco

The two rival countries display a position faithful to their disagreement. Algeria, the third largest importer of Russian arms, remains loyal to Moscow, while Morocco reiterates its support for the territorial integrity of States, taking, in fact, a position in favor of Ukraine.

Israel

The Jewish state, whose ties with Putin are cordial, is in trouble. Fearing a ban on overflights of Syrian territory, the Israeli government prefers not to respond to Kyiv’s call for an anti-missile dome. Moreover, concerned, like Saudi Arabia, by the American desire to negotiate a new nuclear agreement with Iran, Tel-Aviv still hopes that Moscow will hinder the signing of such an agreement. At the same time, Israel feels a moral obligation to support the Ukrainian president, who is Jewish, and the Ukrainian people whose Jewish community was, at the time, traumatized by pogroms.

Iran

Both in Israel and in the Sunni Gulf monarchies, the perception is that Biden has capitulated to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Will the Islamic Republic be able to take advantage of the sanctions against Russia to export more gas to Europe while maintaining its strategic alliance with Moscow?

Turkey

Five million tourists and 40% of the gas used in Turkey come from Russia. The country is therefore playing a tight game to avoid disastrous economic fallout. On the other hand, in accordance with the Montreux agreements, the Turkish government is blocking the passage of any warship through the Bosphorus or Dardanelles straits. Making a diplomatic breakthrough, President Erdogan brought together Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers for their first meeting since the start of the offensive.

These few examples demonstrate that the influence of the United States in the Middle East is in a critical phase. The Pax americana is now only a shadow of itself and Washington is the main culprit. After surviving the Arab Springs, authoritarian and conservative regimes in the region still harbor a disdain for the liberal model. As Europe, NATO and the United States are determined to contain Russia behind a new iron curtain and cut it off from international economic institutions, China could use this context to advance its economic program in the Middle East. East and North Africa, a more flexible program than that of the West, far from demands for political liberalization or democratization.

Closer than you think

Sanctions on the Russian hydrocarbon sector, along with the refusal of Middle Eastern OPEC member countries to raise their production levels to offset the drop in Russian exports, have led to a surge in oil prices on world markets. In Canada, this increase is having an impact on prices at the pump and fueling inflation in general, but could also be a godsend for provinces such as Alberta, whose economy is largely dependent on oil.