The news broke Tuesday mid-afternoon like a ton of red bricks hitting a piece of metal. An explosion in Poland, possibly caused by Russian missiles, is said to have killed two people.
I don’t know about you, but for my part, I felt my blood freeze in my veins. Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the escalation of tensions between the country of Vladimir Putin and the countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), I do not think it is exaggerating to say that there are tens of millions of us who carry within us a deaf fear: that of seeing the Ukrainian-Russian conflict spill over into Europe. In the yard of a NATO member.
The consequences of such an eventuality are known. If attacked, Poland is entitled to invoke Article 5 of the Washington Treaty and call on the 29 other member countries of the alliance to help.
It is the whole gear of an immense military machine, extending from California to the border of Ukraine, which would be set in motion.
In other words, it would be the start of a third world war in Europe in just over 100 years. And Canada would – in all likelihood – be a stakeholder.
Thankfully, we don’t seem to have both feet in this doomsday scenario yet. Unfortunately, we already have one.
On Tuesday, we learned more about the Polish incident in dribs and drabs. It is an agricultural installation in the village of Przewodow, a town of 413 souls less than 10 kilometers from the border of Ukraine, which was snapped up. Not exactly a strategic target near Warsaw.
Accident ? Deliberate gesture? Collateral damage from the Ukrainian anti-missile system? At the time of this writing, the Polish authorities were avoiding jumping to conclusions. If the latter asserted that “projectiles of Russian origin” were responsible for the incident which killed two civilians, the country’s president, Andrzej Duda, in a press conference in the middle of the night, said that he ” there is no conclusive evidence to establish who launched this missile”. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki for his part called on the population to calm down. In a tense hour, caution is the best background music.
And it is also on this air of restraint that the American president, Joe Biden, affirmed, from Bali, that it is “Improbable that the missile was fired from Russia”.
On Wednesday, NATO ambassadors will meet in Brussels to discuss the incident, while several heads of state of the military alliance will have the opportunity to talk to each other on the sidelines of the G20 summit.
Whatever happens to the Polish investigation, it is therefore not expected that Article 5 will be invoked anytime soon. Moreover, it should be remembered that in 73 years of NATO’s existence, this clause dealing with collective defense has only been invoked once. After the attacks of September 11, 2001.
At the time, more than two weeks of investigation had been necessary before the member countries of NATO decreed by consensus that the use of article 5 was justified in this case. We are far from a mechanism with automatic triggering.
Nothing is decided yet, therefore, but the explosion in Poland should not be allowed to overshadow the most disturbing event of the day on Tuesday – and no, I am not talking here about Donald Trump who announced that he will run for the US presidency in 2024.
On Tuesday, Russian forces launched some 100 missiles into Ukraine in their biggest attempt to sabotage the country’s power grid to date. If 70 of these missiles were intercepted by the air defense system, others were able to do damage. One of them crashed into a residential building in the middle of Kyiv, killing at least one person.
This rain of missiles comes on top of other bombardments that have enabled Russia to destroy more than 40% of Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure in recent weeks.
In the city of Kherson, just deserted by the Russian forces, the authorities are redoubling their efforts to restore water, electricity and communications.
With the arrival of General Winter, one of Russia’s greatest historical military allies, shortages of essential services could quickly turn into a humanitarian disaster. In traps closing in on the civilian population, despite the reconstruction efforts already underway.
The European Union, which already has some 5 million Ukrainian refugees on its territory at the moment, could see that figure soar now that temperatures are plunging below zero. And this, while several European countries are struggling to supply themselves with gas and energy since the start of the war and the imposition of sanctions on Russia. In these circumstances, it is obvious that the massive influx of Ukrainians who need to take shelter could become a source of tension and division. Within Europe, but also within NATO.
Vladimir Putin is betting several hundred missiles on it.