For almost a year, the war that broke out in Ukraine, after the illegal invasion of its territory by Russia, plunged part of the world into crisis and real lethargy. We are talking about a worrying wait-and-see attitude on the part of the West: not the expectation that the war will end without action, because Europeans and Americans have largely financed and supplied Kyiv with military equipment, but the expectation that a real solution at war points its nose.
That one or the other wins will solve nothing and will in no way prepare for the peace that is essential for the security of the entire European continent. The negotiated political solution is a priori the only viable one, otherwise we will really tip over into this famous third world war often brandished as the teaser from a bad movie. In the meantime, we wait. Because, for several months, this political choice of reason has been struggling to dig its furrow in public opinion and to infuse with Western governments.
The clear choice of Brussels and Washington, among others, to arm Ukraine enabled the attacked country to resist, repel the Russians and reconquer some territories quickly taken by Moscow last February. But isn’t all this a bit artificial? It was a temporary solution for a short, or hopefully short, conflict. However, for weeks, things have been getting bogged down without spectacular progress on one side or the other and we are already tipping over into the long term. Soon we will run out. Basically, rather than radically imposing the solution of the negotiation, for Zelensky and for Putin, who moreover permanently blame each other for the impasse, it would seem that we have completely resigned from our primary mission, in no no longer even invoking the multilateral system or the United Nations to settle the peace.
This is what we wait for once again just keeping score until one side or the other runs out. Either way, the consequences will be devastating.
Despite our immense efforts, Russia, which was said to be lost, with a decadent, unmotivated, dusty and aging army, without a sufficiently effective strategic command, is still there. Vladimir Putin, announcement after announcement, continues to believe his lies and leads the united and resilient Russian population behind his leader, a little more every day into the unknown.
Rethinking the Security Council
There are no 50 solutions to avoid ending up with the worst with this war other than completely rebuilding, on the “ashes” of Ukraine, our international law and its guarantors. We must put diplomacy back at the heart of the concert of nations above all. Above all, we must review the formation of the Security Council, dating from the post-Second World War balances, to bring it closer to today’s geopolitical reality. There can no longer be only five permanent members of this Insecurity Council. The Russian veto has become a problem like the American veto in many conflicts.
It is all these double standards situations that have caused Westerners themselves to sabotage the international order that they have built with the rest of the world, but “Western style” since 1945. two weights, two measures that have progressively alienated the Global South (Global South, in English) to the West. And which have meant that today these regions no longer support us and no longer support our discourse which now sounds more than false on justice and international law, always variable in geometry, according to our interests, our censorship and our self-censorship.
We know it, but we refuse to admit it: Vladimir Putin is not at war against Ukraine, but against the Western bloc. Ukraine, as he kept writing and saying, is only the beginning.
Westerners, by supporting Ukraine downstream with no other strategy than the pride of thinking well, only think of quickly getting rid of this problem as they thought they would quickly get rid of COVID-19, in their acquired habit. assisted ease and immediacy. They can no longer imagine and face anything in the long term. Putin and Xi have time for them: first because they think in the long term, then because the Eurasian-Asian bloc has unlimited resources.
It is today that Putin, as a grand inquisitor, is setting up a tribunal for the West, by rallying millions of individuals to his cause. It’s not self-flagellation to say it, but it’s more to try to clarify what we are going to decide today so as not to add error once again to mistakes and continue, us Westerners, to dig our strategic and moral grave.
* Sébastien Boussois is also a researcher in the Middle East on Euro-Arab relations/terrorism and radicalization, a teacher in international relations, a scientific collaborator at CECID (Free University of Brussels), OMAN (UQAM) and SAVE BELGIUM (Society Against Violent Extremism ).