The Battle of Donbass could be decisive, possibly bloody and certainly devastating.
Tens of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers will play everything for everything. Military vehicles, artillery systems and aerial equipment have poured in by the hundreds in the past few days. We do not know when the assault will be given, but we know that this region of eastern Ukraine will not escape it.
A few days ago, Kostyantyn Batozsky returned from a tour on the spot. “It was a very emotional stay, he says on the phone from kyiv. I felt like I was saying goodbye to this region that saw me grow up. »
Under the roar of the bombs, the man traveled the roads of the Donetsk region to distribute military equipment to Ukrainian troops posted in Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Zaporijzhya. “We brought them rifle scopes, night vision devices, drones. And also equipment for them to be better settled, such as sleeping bags, pillows and first aid kits,” he explains.
Equipment that civil society organizations buy abroad and then bring into Ukraine through the Polish border. “The government takes care of the weapons, we take care of the accessories,” he summarizes.
The battle taking shape on the eastern flank is proving very “personal” for many Ukrainians, says Kostyantyn Batozsky. “I myself am a refugee from Donetsk from 2014 [alors que les troupes pro-russes ont commencé à occuper militairement des parties du Donbass]. They took the house where I grew up. A wound which has been constantly rekindled by the eight years of war and which burns even more keenly as the future of Donbass is about to be decided. “We can’t erase that from our memory. »
Save the most lives
Although the government has asked all residents of Donbass to leave the region — “victory is saving as many lives as possible,” President Zelensky said ten days ago — dozens of Thousands of Ukrainians are still there. “Shops are closed. But there are queues near ATMs and pharmacies, ”reports Kostyantyn Batozsky.
The battle could be brutal, however. The Donbass region is at the heart of the current conflict, recalls Nickolay Kapitonenko, professor at the Institute of International Relations at Taras Shevchenko University in kyiv and consultant to the parliamentary committee on Ukraine’s foreign policy. “Officially, this war was launched to “protect” the Russian speakers of Donbass. And the trigger was Russia’s recognition of the independence of the people’s republics of Lugansk and Donetsk. Putin therefore badly needs a military victory in this region.
Despite the withdrawal of Russian troops from the northern flank (around kyiv), there is nothing to suggest that Putin will limit himself to formalizing his hold on the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk. On Tuesday again, the Russian president insisted that the “special military operation” would continue until Russia achieved “its objectives”.
According to Mr. Kapitonenko, the Russian troops will try to conquer “as much territory as possible”. The port city of Mariupol could fall in the next few hours, which would allow Russian soldiers to be repositioned elsewhere in the Donbass. If the campaign in eastern Ukraine were to prove victorious for Russia – “which is absolutely not guaranteed”, mentions the academic – the Russian general staff could be tempted to relaunch an assault on the capital to install a pro-Russian government there, he believes. “We can’t rule it out. »
In Kharkiv, the second largest city in the country, located in northeastern Ukraine, the bombardments have been more intense for two days, said Artur, contacted on the spot. He nevertheless says he believes that the city will not fall into the hands of the Russians. “In some areas of the city, people cannot go out [en raison des bombardements]. But in central Kharkiv there is a semblance of normalcy, says the man, whose apartment building was damaged by shelling. Many stores are open. There is no shortage of food. »
Although coveted by Putin, Kharkiv could be abandoned by Russian expansionist aims in favor of the Donbass campaign, believes Nickolay Kapitonenko. “Controlling this big city could be very costly and unnecessary for Russia. What is more important for the Russians is to surround the Ukrainian army in the Donbass. »
An encirclement that would allow the Russians to cut off the supply routes through which food, but above all weapons, are sent to the Ukrainian battalions positioned in the east of the country. Attacks on civilians, portrayed by several interviewees as part of “Russian strategy”, are also feared.
“It’s a Soviet military tactic to make us panic, denounces Artur. But we won’t stop resisting. We fight for our freedom. »
Anti-Russian propaganda?
For Ilya Morozov, professor at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, in Volgograd, Russia, one should not “unconditionally trust anti-Russian propaganda which continually deals with the cruelty of soldiers”.
In areas of Mariupol that have fallen under the control of pro-Russian forces, the Russian military is doing everything in its power to deliver food, water and medicine to the local population, he says , recognizing nevertheless that it is a “tragedy for civilians”. Ukrainian authorities estimate that more than 20,000 of them died in the port city.
Mr. Morozov also argues that the Donbass region is of historical importance for Russia. “Donbass has almost always been part of Russia, people from Russia live there and speak Russian”, which meant that in 2014, “residents of Donbass rebelled precisely in the goal to be part of Russia again,” he said.
By launching a military operation in the neighboring country on February 24, Russia hoped for a military victory that was broader than limited to the Donbass, but also “more humane”, believes the professor. “Russia had planned to quickly take the capital and restore a more loyal regime” – which is why Vladimir Putin preferred to use the term “special military operation” rather than “war”, he argues. But Russia has faced strong resistance due to the “repression [en Ukraine] of those who were relatively friendly with Russia” and of the “anti-Russian propaganda that has been circulating in Ukraine for several years”, deplores Mr. Morozov.
Regardless of the justifications invoked, the two camps agree on one thing: there will probably be a major battle in the Donbass in the coming days. And the loss of human life could be calculated on the same scale.