Beyond the human and economic losses, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is concerned about the fallout from the war in Ukraine around the world. In less than three weeks of conflict, the prices of energy, raw materials and agriculture have soared. For a commodity like wheat, the effects could be even more dramatic, warns the Washington institution. “Disruptions to the spring agricultural season could hamper exports, as well as growth and jeopardize food security” world, note the authors of the report. Because Ukraine, the “breadbasket of Europe”, and Russia are among the largest wheat exporters in the world. Between them, they hold about a third of world trade.
“45 African countries and least developed countries import at least a third of their wheat from Ukraine or Russia – 18 of these countries import at least 50%. This includes countries like Burkina Faso, Egypt, the Republic Democratic Republic of the Congo, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen.”
Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary General
Most Ukrainian wheat is exported in summer and autumn. The longer the war lasts, the more exports will be compromised, with an impact on current and future reserves. “Disruptions to exports in the Black Sea have immediate effects for countries like Egypt, which are heavily dependent on grain imports from Russia and Ukraine,” highlighted the World Food Program (WFP) in a report. And beyond the countries receiving grain from the Black Sea, “those more heavily dependent on grain imports are on the front line”as domestic food prices rise, as a result of rising prices on world grain markets, adds the UN food aid agency.
“War in Ukraine means hunger in Africa.”
Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMFon CBS News
But war in #Ukraine has implications for us all—and social implications. People in many countries will feel it through commodity prices: energy, grains, fertilizers, metals. And that will add to inflation, not easy in countries where inflation is already high. 4/5
— Kristalina Georgieva (@KGeorgieva) March 13, 2022
(Translation : “The war in Ukraine has effects on all of us – and social consequences. People in many countries will feel it through the prices of raw materials: energy, grain, fertilizers, metals. And it will add to inflation, not easy for countries where it is already high.”)
Rush on flour and semolina: since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, suppliers of wheat to North Africa, the prices of these products have been soaring in the region, accentuated by a frenzy of purchases before the Ramadan in April. In a supermarket in Ariana, north of Tunis, not a packet of flour or semolina on the shelves, and only three packets of sugar behind the label: “Please no more than a kilo”, notes AFP. For the moment, Tunisia claims to have stocks for three months and basic products (coffee, sugar, pasta, semolina) are largely subsidized, with a baguette price that has not been removed for 10 years at 6 euro cents. According to the local press, Tunisia had canceled an order for wheat after the price spike.
Devoid of hydrocarbons, Morocco has been hit hard by soaring fuel prices. The Moroccan government will financially help road hauliers, hit hard by soaring prices at the pump, fueled by the war in Ukraine, and who went on strike last week. The escalation in prices does not only affect fuel but also basic foodstuffs, which has provoked demonstrations against the high cost of living, for the moment scattered across the country. Worsening the crisis, after two years of pandemic, the kingdom is hit by a drought “historical” while its economy is highly dependent on the agricultural and agri-food sector, the leading contributor to GDP, up to 14%.
An oil and gas country but very dependent on its food imports (75% of its wheat comes from Russia and Ukraine), Libya has also seen prices soar, particularly for flour, milk, oil, preserves and sugar. The Ukrainian conflict has exacerbated these increases with now three rolls for one dinar (0.22 euro) instead of four, a product that is subsidized. Second African consumer of wheat behind Egypt (10 million tonnes per year), Algeria “does not import soft wheat from Russia or Ukraine”, according to the grain office OAIC. “There will be no shortage, grain carriers continue to transport large cargoes to the port of Algiers”told AFP Mustapha, an official of the harbor master’s office.
“Grain prices have already exceeded those of the onset of the Arab Spring and the food riots of 2007-2008. The FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) World Food Price Index , based in Rome) is at its highest level on record”worries Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of the United Nations.
Millions are going hungry in the Horn of Africa region, which is experiencing one of its worst droughts in recent history.
I urge the international community not to forget this humanitarian crisis & fund life-saving relief efforts.https://t.co/2YE25RaJmI pic.twitter.com/b1uPFw9Dbk
— António Guterres (@antonioguterres) March 14, 2022
(Translation : “Millions of people are suffering from hunger in the Horn of Africa region, which is experiencing one of the worst droughts in its recent history. I urge the international community not to forget this humanitarian crisis and to finance the life-saving relief efforts.”)
To avoid riots, governments continue to subsidize basic necessities. Countries, such as Algeria, regularly announce their intention to abolish subsidies, because of their exorbitant cost, without going so far as to dismantle them. Until now.