Increasingly ostracized on the international scene, Russia nevertheless retains its seat on the Arctic Council. The United States still tolerates it at the table despite the war in Ukraine – not without holding its nose, admits a US official in an interview with The duty.
Washington, says James P. DeHart from the outset, has no illusions about Moscow. “We really can’t trust Vladimir Putin,” bluntly asserts this senior diplomat responsible for coordinating American action in the Arctic region. “You also have to look at the claims made by other Russian officials. When the former president [Dmitri] Medvedev says it’s okay to padlock embassies, we don’t need diplomacy and we can look at each other through binoculars and rifle sights, it’s not really a message of trust and hand tense. »
The Arctic Council and its members, of which Canada is a member, are on a different path for now.
Last Friday, the international cooperation forum announced “the suspension of its work until further notice” in a terse 18-word message posted on social networks. Monitoring and forecasting of the impacts of global warming on indigenous peoples, on the ocean and on Arctic biodiversity are thus interrupted for an indefinite period.
“Canada, the Kingdom of Denmark, the United States, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden condemn Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine,” added Global Affairs Canada in a statement, specifying want to give themselves time to assess how “to continue the important work of the Council given the current circumstances”.
It is out of the question, for the moment, to exclude Moscow from the Council. “Russia covers about half of the Arctic and has half of its inhabitants,” says James P. DeHart. Excluding it would not be optimal. »
“Any desire for governance in the Arctic region would be a bit futile without Russia”, emphasizes Frédéric Lasserre. Specialist in the geopolitics of the Arctic in the Department of Geography at Laval University, the professor recalls that already, in 2014, calls for the expulsion of Moscow had resounded. But, he points out, the Arctic Council is not the “Arctic Security Council. It is a non-decisional organization that relies solely on collaboration”.
Cooperation required
The disappearance of the Arctic ice brings out the mercantile appetites of several nations. Rich in oil and minerals, the Arctic weighs more and more heavily in the extractive economy of Russia. Global warming is raging there more quickly than elsewhere and indigenous peoples, sometimes thousands of years old, are struggling to adapt to it.
From the American point of view, explains Mr. DeHart, the stakes relating to the Arctic Circle force collaboration with Russia, even if the international community has placed it, in less than two weeks, on the ban of the world.
“To understand climate change, which is really the priority of the Arctic Council, you have to measure what is happening in the whole region and not just in one or two places, explains Mr. DeHart on the sidelines of a visit to Laval University, the cradle of an important center of expertise on the Arctic. You don’t have to reduce methane and carbon emissions in one place, you have to reduce them everywhere. These are challenges that concern the whole planet: we need the Council for the long term and the commitment of all its members. »
The top American diplomat admits that the collaboration with Russia has often had a bitter taste. For years, Moscow has been showing its chest to the world with its military arsenal deployed in the Far North.
“We’ve been expressing concerns about Russian military activity there for a long time,” said James P. DeHart. The way Russia illegally regulates the passage of the Nordic Sea, its lack of transparency, certain dilettante behaviors on the part of its pilots, all this appeared on our radar long before the invasion of Ukraine. »
For Frédéric Lasserre, there is a part of “staging” in the excessive media coverage of Russian military prowess in the Arctic. “There are not really military tensions, observes the specialist from Laval University. It’s true that there has been a major modernization of the Russian army recently: it’s more to stem the decline that followed the collapse of the USSR than to gain a military advantage. »
In his opinion, the Kremlin has no advantage in extending its war in Ukraine into the Arctic Circle. “We are not in Vladimir Putin’s head, but that would not be very useful, underlines Mr. Lasserre. If he wants to avoid a NATO intervention, this would be the best way to provoke one. »
“We don’t see any new imminent threats in the Arctic,” said James P. DeHart. Faced with a Russian adversary who has invaded three sovereign countries in the past 30 years, the diplomat adds that NATO and the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) are ready to face any aggression from Moscow .
“We are determined to preserve peace in the Arctic region and to perpetuate the collaboration that has existed there in the past,” concludes the senior American diplomat. The Arctic Council works best when all eight member states and regional populations work together. »