Colonel Pascal Ianni, spokesperson for the Chief of Staff of the French Armed Forces, estimated on Monday March 7 on franceinfo that“Ultimately, Ukraine will find it difficult to hold on, but that does not mean that victory [de la Russie] is inevitable”. The Russian army has announced the opening of several humanitarian corridors and the establishment of local ceasefires to evacuate civilians from the Ukrainian cities of Kharkhiv, Kiev and Mariupol, plagued by heavy fighting.
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franceinfo: Russia announces opening several humanitarian corridors on Monday morning to evacuate civilians from Kiev, Kharkiv, Mariupol and Sumy. Is it credible and can we evacuate these hundreds of thousands of people?
Pascal Ianni: From a military point of view, yes, it is possible to open humanitarian corridors. Of course, there must be an agreement between the parties to the conflict, in this case between the Ukrainian and Russian parties. This is possible if these two parties agree to ceasefires and coordinate to allow civilians to leave the combat zones.
For five days, the port of Mariupol has been under bombs: why is it important?
What we have observed since the beginning of this conflict, on February 24, is this Russian desire, from Crimea, to create territorial continuity between Crimea, the secessionist provinces and Russia, in order to be able to control the entire coastline of the Sea of Azov, which from a strategic point of view seems quite logical. Mariupol is necessarily a strategic lock. To reach the end of this strategy is to take control of Mariupol.
The Chief of Defense Staff, for whom you are the spokesperson, speaks of a Russian “steamroller”: that means that the Russians will win in the end and the question is when?
That’s not quite it. When we talk about the Russian steamroller, we are talking about a balance of power that is overwhelming in favor of Russian forces, especially on the ground. The Ukrainian forces are in a defensive position, they have little or no reserves. Russian forces have reserves throughout Russian territory. They have an industrial power behind them. It is for this reason that this image of a steamroller is used. It’s not always the most numerous army that wins in the end, but the mass plays an important role when you are in a conflict of this type. It is certain that if, from a strictly military point of view, things unfold as they seem to unfold, in the end Ukraine will find it difficult to hold on. But that doesn’t mean victory [de la Russie] is inevitable.