The event is crucial for Joe Biden and Donald Trump who, on Thursday, will cross swords in the very first televised debate of the American presidential campaign. The Republican and the Democrat have already been there, twice in 2020, in the months preceding the defeat of the populist and his expulsion by voters from the White House, at the end of his first term. But in an America that is still so divided where Trumpism and its many excesses persist and take root, the two candidates will have a lot to do, in just 90 minutes, to convince both the undecided and their base, to reverse trends and perceptions. negative and, above all, surprise voters.
Convince
Incumbent presidents generally enter the first televised debate of a campaign at a disadvantage, due to the immediate record they have to defend and the discontent that generally accompanies their first four years in office. This was the case for Donald Trump in 2020, Barack Obama in 2012 and George W. Bush in 2004. In 2024, Joe Biden should not escape this.
The Democrat, neck and neck in the polls with the populist ex-president, has a long way to go to ensure his re-election next November, starting from this first debate to bring back to him the voters he is losing.
“Democrats have been shaken in recent weeks by polling data showing that support for Joe Biden is eroding among the young electorate, but also among African-American and Hispanic voters who are nevertheless committed to their party” , notes W. Joseph Campbell, professor emeritus of communications at the American University, joined by The duty in Washington.
Last May, a joint probe by the New York TimesSiena College and Philadelphia Inquirer was received as a warning shot by the Democratic camp by showing the president lagging behind in voting intentions in 5 of the 6 key states in this campaign. He is losing the support of these specific groups of voters, due to persistent inflation which is damaging the daily lives of the less well-off sections of the population, but also to the Israeli war against Gaza, supported by Washington, and which is raising the ire of several thousand students across the country.
“Suburban voters will also have a significant influence on the outcome of the elections in these key states,” continues Mr. Campbell, a group that Joe Biden will have to challenge on Thursday evening, undoubtedly through the defense of women’s rights, compromised by the policies and decisions of Republican governments across the country. “Trump will also try to appeal to all these voters to attract them to him and stay in the lead, but he will have to do it without giving the impression of flattering them,” he adds.
The populist, who enjoys a solid electoral base, against all odds, should for his part seek to broaden his support, by trying to seduce the more moderate fringe of the Republican Party, which turned its back on him during the primaries by preferring Nikki Haley. And which continues to do so. In several key states, the former US ambassador to the UN collected between 13.2% and 26.6% of the Republican vote.
“Voters who are behind Trump will support him no matter what,” says Alan Schroeder, a political communications specialist at Northeastern University. But he will have to address those who still have not made their decision. »
To spill
It is certainly Donald Trump who, Thursday evening, will have the easiest task by becoming the voice of public discontent with Joe Biden. And he should do it by driving the point home on the increasing cost of living, by continuing to make immigration his scapegoat or by emphasizing the growing feeling of insecurity in several large cities in the United States.
“Donald Trump should use the argument that Americans live in a worse world than four years ago and that only he can turn back the clock to a better time,” predicts historian Luke Nichter of Chapman University in California. “Joe Biden must instead make it clear that his work in the White House is not yet finished and that he needs a second term to complete his project. »
The debates are watched mainly by more politically motivated people, supporters, particularly at the start of summer when many voters have not yet mentally entered this race
The president will also have to reverse the perceptions that the Republican camp harbors by associating, between hypocrisy and half-truths, the Democrat with all of the crises that the country is going through. So, to show that he succeeded where his opponent failed, Joe Biden could talk about jobs: when Donald Trump left the White House in 2020, unemployment was higher than when he took the keys to office. power, four years earlier. Conversely, last May, 15.6 million more Americans were employed, compared to the first month of 2021, when Joe Biden took office, the US Department of Labor said last week.
At the beginning of the month, the American president also addressed the issue of the border crisis head-on by signing several decrees which tighten the rules for entering the United States by land from Mexico. The Republicans accused him of inertia on this very hot electoral subject, while the Democratic camp, for its part, stressed that the elected officials of Donald Trump’s party did everything with their majority in Congress to never provide a solution to crisis.
While seeking to combat the negative perceptions that weigh on him, Joe Biden should also seek to pierce the incredible shell of Donald Trump, who for years has resisted all revelations, however embarrassing and disturbing they may be, as well as as well as a recent conviction by the New York courts which made him the first ex-president convicted by a citizens’ jury in the history of the country.
The populist’s promise to pardon all of his supporters convicted after they took part in his failed insurrection against the Capitol on January 6, 2021, could be used to add grist to Joe Biden’s mill in this quest. . Among other things.
Surprise
Even though it will be a 90-minute whole, this election debate will mostly be consumed, by the majority of Americans, in fragments broadcast later on television and social networks. And that is a reality that the two candidates and their campaign teams are certainly thinking about.
“The debates are watched mainly by more politically motivated people, supporters, particularly at the start of summer when many voters have not yet mentally entered this race,” summarizes Joshua Scacco, director of the Center, in an interview. for Sustainable Democracy and professor of political communication at the University of South Florida.
Difficult to say if this debate will beat the record of 84 million viewers established by the first meeting between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in 2016, the highest figure in the history of televised debates in the United States, since 1960. But one thing is certain: “The extracts that follow, produced by campaign teams, press outlets and social media influencers, will be even more important for those who are not going to watch it,” he continues.
On this point, Donald Trump leaves with a disadvantage, due to a debate which will be played out without the presence of citizens in the studio. “In 2016, against Hillary Clinton, he benefited enormously from this audience captivated by his presence” and whose images subsequently made the rounds on the Web, recalls political scientist Patrick Stewart, joined at the University of Arkansas . “Trump thrives when he connects with his audience. Which he won’t be able to do here. »
In this context, both candidates could seek to create a surprise to ensure a larger and perhaps more positive post-debate presence in the event of an average or poor performance.
“Donald Trump, for example, could reveal the name of his running mate during this debate,” says W. Joseph Campbell, an announcement expected during the Republican National Convention in July. “As for Joe Biden, he could, and this is another example, announce that he plans to ask the governor of New York to offer a pardon to Trump, [après sa condamnation pour dissimulation de pot-de-vin]. » She is the only one who can do it. “It would be a completely unexpected and conciliatory gesture which would then cause a lot of noise,” he concludes.