As of this writing, the United States is mired in political uncertainty: Which party will control the majority of seats in the House of Representatives? It goes without saying that the answer to this question is of great importance. If President Biden has to contend with a Republican-controlled House, it will slow his legislative momentum for the next two years.
But that is what awaits us from 2023 under, perhaps (uncertainty obliges), a Republican government in the lower house of Congress. However, there are just over seven weeks left during which there is absolutely no uncertainty: the Democrats have a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate until the end of the year. And they intend to take advantage of this post-election period to focus on several major legislative and budgetary issues.
lame ducks
There is a period in the United States between the holding of elections in November and the start of the new legislative session (or executive term in the case of a president) in January: this period is called duck blade or lame duck, an expression that refers to elected officials whose term is about to end. Their influence is fading. They are lame.
Despite this lackluster image, this period is often fruitful in the legislature.
Freed from the electoral yoke, lame ducks can cause surprise by supporting legislation they would normally oppose.
Such was the case in December 2020 when Congress granted more than $900 billion in aid in the face of the health crisis. After months of fruitless negotiations, once the election was over, the two parties reached a compromise. Results ? A gigantic law releasing more than 2300 billion dollars.
And everything suggests that the session duck blade beginner this week will be very busy. Here are some priorities on the agenda.
Response to the attack on the Capitol
The commission of inquiry into the attack on the Capitol on January 6 must publish its report before the end of the year. It will have the effect of a bomb, especially if it adds recommendations on the delicate question of an indictment of ex-president Trump. The other legislative response to this attack was to change the process governing the certification of Electoral College votes. The House and the Senate having each ratified his amendments to theElectoral Count Actthey will have to find common ground before the reform can gain the president’s approval.
Tax and budgetary issues
One of the first issues that Congress will have to face in 2023 is that of raising the public debt ceiling. In the United States, Congress must authorize this increase, allowing the government to borrow the sums necessary to meet its obligations. However, the current Republican leader in the House, Kevin McCarthy, has announced that he will refuse to raise this ceiling unless the Democrats agree to reduce certain expenses. Knowing this, Democrats have every incentive to raise that cap before the end of the year. Some Democrats are even talking about changing this process so that they don’t have to repeat this dance when it’s just a matter of giving the federal government the fiscal capacity to meet its obligations.
Who says debt also says expenses. And in the United States, military spending is huge. The House adopted in July the National Defense Authorization Act providing more than $800 billion for national defense in the next fiscal year. It is now the turn of the Senate to follow suit. There is also the question of additional aid to Ukraine which could be put to a vote, as there is no guarantee that a Republican majority will continue to support Ukraine militarily and financially.
In addition to military spending, there is also talk of a budget resolution that both houses of Congress and the president must pass or there will be a federal government shutdown in December. And the Democrats will want at all costs to avoid a shutdown of the government.
In response to the Supreme Court
Last July, the House approved the law Respect for Marriage Act guaranteeing the equality and legal recognition of same-sex marriages and interracial marriages. This law protects a right which, in the eyes of many, is today threatened by the conservative shift in the Supreme Court. The Senate had put the negotiations on the hot seat, because the Democrats need at least 10 Republican votes, a challenge in the middle of the electoral campaign.
A dance for two
One thing is certain: the Democrats still hold the majority in Congress and they will want to act quickly. However, in the Senate, the Republicans can block bills by means of the legislative maneuver of the filibuster. It will therefore be necessary for the Democrats and the Republicans to negotiate in good faith. This dance of the ducks, it will have to be done in pairs.
* Antoine Yoshinaka teaches American politics and quantitative methods. His research focuses on political institutions, elections and political parties in the United States. He is also an associate researcher at the Observatory on the United States of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair.