Canada has been struggling for more than a week to evacuate its citizens and diplomats from Sudan, like many other countries. Khartoum, the Sudanese capital, scarred by fierce fighting between rival factions, is sinking into chaos. Is the huge country of 45 million people heading towards a civil war?
What has been happening in Sudan since April 15?
Little reliable information leaks out of Sudan. Photos of residences destroyed by missiles circulated on the Internet, without being able to be cross-checked, as well as videos of fighter planes razing the roofs of the country’s capital, Khartoum. Bombings were reported by various news agencies. A fire destroyed part of the Khartoum airport. Assassination attempts targeting politicians were reported by local media, the Sudans Postwhich fears a “coup”.
These brawls result from a struggle between a rebel faction of the army and the rest of the military body that administers Sudan. In two weeks, the clashes left at least 500 dead, more than 4,000 injured and caused the flight of more than 75,000 people, according to the UN. Several hospitals have been requisitioned by armed militias, says the World Health Organization.
Local reporters report “bodies lying in the streets” and a complete absence of electricity and water in large areas of the capital.
#NOTICE
♦️#El_Geneina27Apr
No electricity, as it was struck and it was cut off for 4 days, 95% of the residents in city have their phones turned off due to not charging, and Zain, MTN, telecom are not available, weak. only network that is available now Sudanese telecom. pic.twitter.com/zFDaXhsTHa— GOUJA AHMED (@qoga12) April 27, 2023
The Sudanese army posted on its Facebook page an image of charred armored tanks believed to belong to the rebel faction, a new clue that confirms fierce clashes for control of the capital.
This outbreak of violence is part of a series of conflicts in a country that has long been on the verge of collapse. A successful coup in 2019 ousted military dictator Omar al-Bashir, who had ruled Sudan for 30 years. This revolution then opened the door to the hopes of a democratic renewal. Four years later, these hopes seem very slim.
Who is responsible for this outbreak of violence?
Two high-ranking officers of the Sudanese army clash in this fight at the top of the state. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane, official head of the army and current head of state of Sudan since the putsch of 2021, tries to resist against the subversion of the leader of the paramilitary forces, General Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, known as “Hemeti “.
“The subject of tension for several months has been the reform of the security sector, that is to say the integration of the paramilitary forces, which are also called the Rapid Support Forces, into the traditional army “, explains Anne-Laure Mahé, doctor in political science at the University of Montreal and specialist in the current political transition in Sudan. “It had been going on for several months. It was part of the agreements reached after the 2021 coup carried out by both the traditional army and the paramilitaries. That’s the crux of the war. […] Everyone knows very well that these two armed factions form an alliance that could not work in the very long term, because at some point the question arises of who really rules. Both [al-Burhane et Hemeti] want to lead. »
A third general threatens to enter this macabre dance. Ousted dictator Omar al-Bashir, imprisoned since his overthrow in 2019, has reportedly found a way to escape his prison in the chaotic whirlwind sweeping the country. But the army assures that he is still “in the custody of the judicial police”. Al-Jazeera media sources indicate that “members of the family of former President al-Bashir [attendent] an end to the fighting so that he can be tried and prove his innocence”.
His reappearance on the political scene would blur the cards in an already quite complicated game.
What is the role of the great powers in this conflict?
Sudan is at the center of strong desires. Egypt wants Sudan to remain a military dictatorship, just like it does. Saudi Arabia supports Sudanese Islamist currents. These two Arab nations source their food in this country where agriculture represents a little less than a third of the GDP. Russia has been trying for years to set up a military base in Port Sudan and profit from the country’s rich gold mines. Westerners instead dream of democracy in this remote corner of Africa, although it is very far down their list of concerns.
All in all, no foreign power really has power over this disjointed and difficult-to-reach country.
“Those who benefit from it are the people who sell weapons,” observes Anne-Laure Mahé. Overall, while you could say some are on one side or the other, I think right now everyone is a bit caught off guard by the magnitude and speed with which the situation is unfolding. is degraded. It is in no one’s interest for this conflict to drag on and become bigger than it already is. »
Like several other countries, Canada has moved most of its diplomatic corps to Sudan to “a safe place” on the African continent, senior federal officials confirmed to the press this week. Some 200 Canadian nationals have been evacuated so far and about 800 have “raised their hands” for help, according to Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly. Just under 1,700 Canadians are currently in Sudan.
What are the consequences of these clashes?
These internal struggles concern for the moment mainly the government and the people of Sudan. A protracted conflict could have only indirect repercussions for Canada, as trade and cultural exchanges are limited between Sudan and the rest of the world.
The price of coffee and certain metals could in particular rise if the Sudanese economy were to come to a complete halt.
“The great risk in this conflict is that in the end it displaces thousands, even millions of people in other countries, and that it worsens the situation in neighboring countries”, indicates Jabeur Fathally, acting director of the Center Human Rights Research and Teaching Center at the University of Ottawa. “The conflict will destabilize the whole region of the Horn of Africa and East Africa, but also the whole geopolitics of Africa, because we can see territorial ramifications. Civil war-torn Sudan will be targeted by other regional actors. Ethiopia could have an interest in appropriating certain territories, for example. »
Is Sudan heading towards a civil war?
Since the skirmishes are the result of a power struggle between different factions of the Sudanese army, and not of ethnic or ideological struggles, the country is not (yet) in the throes of a civil war.
Two scenarios are emerging in the medium term, according to Mr. Fathally. “There is an optimistic scenario, where the pressure that will be exerted on the belligerents can make it possible, in a few weeks or a few months, to reach an agreement. According to the pessimistic scenario, the conflict will get bogged down and will affect the whole region of East Africa, because the big powers are busy with other things more important than the conflict in Sudan. »
“It doesn’t work to encourage dialogue with the military. We have to stop looking for consensus, because we cannot have consensus, in fact, in this situation,” says Anne-Laure Mahé, who has worked in the country on several occasions. According to her, the world’s democratic powers should instead support the “resistance committees” born in the aftermath of the 2019 coup if they want lasting appeasement. “It is these organizations at the neighborhood level, which emerged during the revolution, which today do all the humanitarian work. […] It is these actors who are the most bearers of democracy. »
Hard, therefore, to predict how the Sudanese civil society will react, caught in a vice by this power struggle. Because, as the saying goes, when two elephants fight, it’s the grass that suffers.