After the re-election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, what about Turkey? To comment on these elections in “European Micro”, Ardavan Amir Arslani, lawyer, author of “Turkey, new caliphate?” published by the Archipelago.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been re-elected president in Turkey for a third term, with more than 52% of the vote and 20 years in power. Erdogan remains at the head of the country for another five years, while the polls gave him the loser before the first round. Decryption with Ardavan Amir Arslani, lawyer and author of Turkey, new caliphate? published by Editions de l’Archipel.
franceinfo: Ardavan Amir Aslani, your first reaction to this result?
Ardavan Amir Aslani: I’m not going to play the role of those who consider themselves to be potential “Madame Soleil”, but I would say that my book, which is called Turkey, new caliphate? today I will call it: Turkey, new caliphate! with an exclamation mark, it’s unavoidable for me.
Is it a necessary evil?
It’s a necessary evil, because the Turks have to go to the end of this extremist thought, nationalism, Islamism, embodied by Erdogan in order to be able to get out of it, they haven’t arrived at the end again. They must descend even lower in their pictorial fantasies of what the Ottoman Empire once was.
As Vladimir Fedorovski says, shouldn’t take your fantasies for realities?
Absolutely, he’s absolutely right. The reality is that those elections were not just about the economy. Erdogan mobilized and monopolized the entire field of debate, nationalism, Islamism, only the economy remained, and he was totally disinterested, and, as we know, the opposition rushed into this file there, leaving the most primordial, the most important questions in the hands of Erdogan. And he used and abused it.
With inflation around 120%?
Inflation is exploding, unemployment is exploding, Turkish purchasing power is falling, foreign investments are falling. All of that is true. There was the tragedy of the earthquake, it is true, but that was not enough to block Erdogan. It passed, even in the provinces which knew this abominable tragedy, it almost arrived at the head, in the whole of the departments concerned.
The important date, after these elections, is October 2023, the 100th anniversary of the Republic of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. There, it is necessary that it makes a political stunt?
You are right. Erdogan positioned himself in this year of the centenary of the creation of the Republic, in the anti-Atatürk, so he must do something. A simple firework would not be enough. For my part, I think he can make a splash by occupying a few Greek islands, near his border. He can withdraw from NATO. I had this idea, and I happen to be the only one who thinks so…
But is it a running theory?
The facts seem to support this thesis, it would be an earthquake…
What is important in the congratulations, of course, Vladimir Putin warmly congratulated Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Egypt, General Sisi, who congratulates Erdogan and wants to immediately improve diplomatic relations with Turkey. That’s new?
You are right to point out this major fact. Sisi came to power, in a coup, financed by the Saudis and the Emiratis against the Muslim Brotherhood, and well today, he is reaching out, he is running towards reconciliation with Turkey, directed by another Muslim Brother. It’s quite amazing.
The German Chancellor congratulates President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, of course in relation to the Turkish community in Germany, we understand why…
At least the Germans have a sense of realpolitik…
And the French president who congratulates…
And after being insulted by Erdogan. For what ? Because I think that there is an attitude which is that of capitulation: Turkey frightens, Turkey, it is supposedly pragmatism which leads the Turkish president to blackmail the refugees…
The bill…
Of course, send the invoice, and there are others who rejoice because they say to themselves: “we have a good historical relationship with Turkey, we will be able to get along with him”.
And those who want to get along, those who want to strengthen ties: there is Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Africa, Iraq, the Gulf countries, and Indian Prime Minister Modi, that’s a lot ?
Of course, all those countries you mentioned are happy with Erdogan’s success. Already, South Africa does not skimp on the means to announce its proximity to Putin. The others are with Erdogan, because, for them, Erdogan is an unavoidable deal in the region.
So we are at a tipping point…
A total shift in the geopolitical landscape of Europe and the Middle East, which will see these emerging nations, deeply convinced of their destiny, of the meaning of their future, proud of what they were, what they are and what ‘they hope to become, to stand up to this West which, despite everything, is experiencing real downgrading. The West must stop falling asleep and wake up, because time is not to its advantage.