Turkey and NATO | Erdoğan’s big game

With its right of veto, Turkey had held the expansion of NATO in its hands for weeks. On Tuesday, the Erdoğan regime welcomed its victory after the agreement reached with Sweden and Finland. A way for the president to restore his image, tested at home by a crisis of hyperinflation one year before the presidential election.

Janie Gosselin
The Press

“A disturbing ally”

In May, when Turkey vetoed Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO membership, demanding in particular the extradition of some of its nationals, exiled journalist Levent Kenez was not surprised to see his name circulating in the Turkish media. His country of origin had already asked Sweden, where he found refuge, to extradite him – a request rejected by the Swedish Supreme Court.

The new position of Turkey, which agreed on Tuesday to support the Swedish and Finnish candidacies in exchange for certain commitments, does not worry it unduly. Even if the Turkish Minister of Justice reiterated his request for the extradition of 33 people, on the strength of the promise of “full cooperation” of Finland and Sweden in the fight against terrorism.

“Obviously no country is going to say: I protect terrorism, reacted Mr. Kenez on the telephone. But the real question is who is considered a terrorist. »

He himself is accused of links with the Fetö movement, founded by the preacher Fethullah Gülen and considered by the Turkish government to be a terrorist since the failed coup in 2016. Like his colleague Abdullah Bozkurt, with whom he works in Sweden for an online media outlet critical of the Turkish government.

“In Turkey, a journalist critical of the regime is a terrorist, whereas in Sweden, we recognize professional journalists”, denounces the latter, also president of the Stockholm Center for Freedom.

Finland and Sweden have pledged to follow the European Convention on Extradition, which could cause disappointment among the Turkish government.

Enfant terrible

Whether on the definition of terrorism, on human rights violations or on democracy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Turkey, with its authoritarian regime, appears as a partner with awkward positions for its democratic allies. The veto first affixed to the accession of two European democracies to NATO is only the most recent element.

The Turkish government, for its part, blames its allies for not supporting it – even accusing the United States of being behind the 2016 coup attempt. In the last decade, Turkey has distanced itself from the West to get closer to Asia and has increased its presence in Africa.

“To understand Turkey’s foreign relations, I think there are several layers to think about,” said Çiğdem Üstün, associate professor at Nişantaşı University, Istanbul. Yes, there is its role within NATO, of which it has been a member since 1952. But also its disagreements with the European Union, which it wishes to integrate and which makes it languish. And the sanctions imposed by several allies – including Canada – for its failure to comply with the rules.

Kurdish issue

Turkish military interventions in northern Syria against the Kurdish YPG group earned Turkey sanctions in 2019.

To support its candidacy for NATO, Turkey also demanded that Sweden lift one of these measures, namely the embargo on its arms exports – something it obtained – and toughen its anti-terrorism laws. regarding Kurdish activists.

If the West reproaches him for his actions, Turkey, she resents her partners for supporting the Kurdish militants of the YPG, who fought the armed group Islamic State in Syria.

She believes that her allies should consider the YPG as a terrorist entity, just like the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, the PKK, a movement classified as such in several countries, including Sweden and Canada.

Sweden and Finland have pledged “not to support” the YPG in Syria.

Reactions in Sweden

The lifting of the veto has raised concern for Kurds, a minority ethnic group in Turkey, in the regime’s crosshairs – 17 of the 33 people targeted by the extradition request to Finland and Sweden are accused of being members of the PKK.

“I am worried about the Kurds in Sweden,” Kurdo Baksi, a Swedish human rights activist and journalist of Kurdish origin, told Agence France-Presse.

Turkey’s rhetoric, in which security fears have been brought to the fore, is nothing new for Kurds in Sweden, stresses Barzoo Eliassi, associate professor at Linnaeus University’s Faculty of Social Sciences, in Sweden.

Himself of Kurdish descent from the Iranian region, Professor Eliassi has published studies on this people, including a book which earned him the blacklist of Turkey, he says.

Reached before Turkey’s change of tone, he was not surprised at the place occupied by the Kurds in the discussions. “I think the Kurds are not very surprised; they are often the victims of realpolitik, it is a repetition of Kurdish history,” he said.

With Agence France-Presse

Rampant inflation, angry citizens

“We are all affected by rising prices,” says Çiğdem Üstün, associate professor of European studies at Nişantaşı University, joined in Istanbul. “Particularly by rising gas prices, because that affects everything else. »

After COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine, inflation and the rising cost of living are affecting people around the world. But in Turkey, the consumer price index jumped 73.5% over one year, one of the highest in the world.

Economists have pointed the finger at the policies of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who opposed raising interest rates. The Turkish lira has lost nearly half of its value over the past year.

Result: the Turks are tightening their belts by denouncing soaring prices. And their anger has the president fearful of losing his seat in next year’s election.

Appease voters

Erdoğan’s positions on the international stage are playing on voters’ heartstrings, analysts believe, by seeking to galvanize the population against a scapegoat – be it the Kurds or the Syrian refugees, who number 3.7 million in Turkey – and to project an image of strength in the face of Westerners.

“The timing is important,” said Murat Önsoy, an associate professor at Hacettepe University in Ankara, citing rumors of an upcoming Turkish military operation against the Kurds in northern Syria.

Especially since the economic situation could worsen with the war in Ukraine. So far, Turkey seems to have tried to spare the goats and cabbage in this conflict, condemning the Russian invasion without imposing Western sanctions while supporting Ukraine with its military drones.

For the moment, its economic situation does not allow it to do without Russia. “The Turkish economy is very dependent on Russian energy”, illustrates Oya Duran-Özkanca, professor of political science and international studies at Elizabethtown College, in Pennsylvania, who also underlines the importance of Russian tourism.

Although she is delighted with the “strong signal of a united NATO group” sent to Russia by the lifting of Turkey’s veto for the accession of Finland and Sweden, she does not believe that this risks tarnish Turkish relations with the government of Vladimir Putin. “The relationship between Russia and Turkey is very transactional,” she notes. They don’t always get along, but they work together when it serves their mutual interests. »

With the International mail