Turbulent Times Ahead for Georgia’s Parliamentary Elections

Georgia’s upcoming parliamentary elections are portrayed as a pivotal choice between aligning with the EU or Russia, amid widespread economic concerns. The liberal opposition, hopeful for a shift away from the ruling Georgian Dream party, highlights strong public support for EU accession. Meanwhile, accusations of election manipulation persist, alongside fears of escalating tensions. Strikes reflecting discontent with economic conditions loom large, as uncertain polling results suggest a potentially volatile electoral outcome amid fears of foreign influence and internal conflict.

The parliamentary election in Georgia is framed by both the government and the opposition as a pivotal choice between war and peace, as well as between aligning with the EU or sticking with Russia. Amid these global tensions, many citizens are deeply concerned about their economic circumstances.

On Thursday, an opposition politician from the Droa party, which translates to “It’s time!”, expressed hope for change on X, stating, “Two days and two hours until Georgia is free!” The civil society and liberal opposition are eager for this election to signal the end of the ruling Georgian Dream party’s reign.

Supporters of the liberal opposition point to the large crowds at recent protests, such as the demonstration on October 20, where tens of thousands rallied for EU membership. For years, public opinion polls have consistently indicated that about 80% of the population favors joining the EU.

The opposition believes that this election represents a crucial decision between embracing the EU or succumbing to influence from Russia, which is associated with the ruling party led by businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili. Ivanishvili, who made his wealth in Russia during the 1990s, often appears to support Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has even passed legislation on ‘foreign influence’ targeting civil society, mirroring similar laws in Russia.

Ivanishvili argues that the West seeks to provoke Georgia into a conflict with Russia, claiming only his party can maintain peace—a sentiment that resonates with the population’s underlying fears. His aim is to secure a constitutional two-thirds majority for Georgian Dream in parliament.

Key figures from his party have warned that the opposition intends to orchestrate a coup with Western backing. There are concerns over potential election interference, including pressure on voters who oppose the government and assaults on opposition members.

Discontent Across the Political Spectrum

The actual sentiment among the populace remains uncertain. Both pro-government and opposition media are releasing polls that show differing majorities. A reputable study by the Caucasus Resource Research Center (CRRC) indicated that as of last year, 62% of participants felt that none of the parties truly represented them, and 52% felt unrepresented by parliament members.

Unpublished findings from a pre-election survey conducted by a U.S. institute named after the late Senator John McCain suggest the ruling party may still have a ‘healthy majority.’ However, the liberal factions have not united under a common front, which poses a significant challenge given the five percent electoral threshold.

Currently, there are two distinct party alliances, including members from the previous ruling UNM party led by former President Mikhail Saakashvili, who is imprisoned for his corruption. Another group, led by former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia’s ‘For Georgia’ party, remains neutral in this polarized landscape. The current government has declared all these parties as adversaries and hinted at possible bans.

As Georgia heads to the polls this weekend, it confronts a pivotal dilemma.

Economic Concerns Overlooked

Years of polling suggest that all political factions are failing to address the pressing issues that matter most to citizens—their economic and social well-being. The Georgian Dream party has not effectively reversed the extensive deregulation initiated by Saakashvili. Furthermore, the slow progress on the EU Association Agreement, ratified in 2016, has offered little improvement, particularly in labor conditions.

This mounting discontent is evident through a rise in strikes. Recently, residents of Shukruti concluded their prolonged protests and hunger strikes—with no tangible outcomes. They demanded reparations for the destruction caused by mining activities in their village. Although the ruling party finally agreed to negotiate with the mining company just before the elections, discussions yielded no agreement, leading to heightened frustration among the villagers.

The current government policies, particularly the newly enacted ‘foreign influence’ law, pose serious risks to EU accession.

EU’s Challenging Perception

In July, workers at the Swedish casino operator Evolution Georgia staged a strike for improved conditions and to protest the management’s sexist attitudes. Outrage ensued when the Swedish embassy lauded the company for its work environment, sparking backlash among locals. Strikes over inadequate wages and poor working conditions are also common in other European service sectors, including the food delivery company Bolt from Estonia.

For Georgia’s significant agriculture sector, the EU presents a challenging marketplace. Even Georgian wine producers struggle against the oversaturation of the European market. In contrast, selling their products to China and Russia is often easier and comes with fewer quality demands.

Consequently, the ruling party

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