The bilateral meeting announced last week between Prime Ministers Justin Trudeau and François Legault takes place today, March 15. The subjects of immigration and federal Bill C-64 will undoubtedly be at the center of the discussion, these issues having recently been the subject of strong tensions between Quebec and Ottawa.
Prime Minister Legault will take the opportunity to reiterate his requests aimed at curbing the influx of asylum seekers on Quebec territory, to demand reimbursement of expenses related to their reception in 2021 and 2022, and to demand respect for its immigration thresholds. It is a safe bet that Quebec’s right to opt out of the future federal drug insurance program will also be discussed.
These demands from François Legault will once again test his autonomist strategy deployed since he came to power and his ability to protect the Quebec nation within Canada. In the government’s own words, the issues of recent weeks do not only raise economic problems, but would threaten Quebec identity itself. These new developments in Quebec-Ottawa relations offer the opportunity to reflect on the results offered to us by the autonomist strategy pursued by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) for more than five years now.
In Quebec, autonomism forms a long political tradition, which reached its climax with the governments of the National Union of the last century. Autonomism is rooted in the idea that Quebec forms a nation distinct from the rest of Canada, and that from this specificity arises the need for the Quebec nation to possess the powers required for its development and the preservation of its culture at home. within the Canadian framework. Since the creation of the ADQ in the 1990s, this position has been associated with a third way between independence and federalism.
It was in particular by taking up this approach and proposing “nationalism, but without the referendum” that François Legault was elected in 2018. Even more, the 2022 election should be an opportunity to give a strong mandate to the CAQ so that it can obtain significant gains for Quebec from Ottawa. But what has this autonomist strategy offered us so far? The results are disappointing.
A statement of failure
We don’t need to go back very far to compile a list of the CAQ’s failures in federal negotiations. The most resounding setback of the year 2023 will undoubtedly have been the meager annual increase of one billion dollars in health transfers out of the six requested. More recently in January, Quebec obtained only $100 million to cover the costs relating to asylum seekers, while it requested 470 million and demanded similar reimbursement for the years to come.
Two weeks ago, the imposition of visas on Mexican visitors was celebrated by Christine Fréchette as “proof that Quebec is able to make itself heard in Ottawa”. However, not only does this measure in no way resolve the question of the equitable distribution of costs linked to the reception of asylum seekers between the provinces, but last week, the federal Minister of Immigration, Marc Miller, announced that it was ready to increase the number of files processed under the family reunification program, even if it meant exceeding the thresholds set by Quebec. The celebration was short-lived for Minister Fréchette.
There is no doubt that these failures weighed heavily in the government’s decisions to present a deficit budget this Tuesday. But this incapacity of the CAQ’s autonomy to defend the interests of Quebec in the federation has economic, but also political, consequences. In fact, the federal government has already announced that Quebec would not be able to receive full compensation without conditions if it decides to withdraw from the future national drug insurance plan. This is undoubtedly an encroachment on Quebec’s areas of jurisdiction.
Symbolic struggles without a balance of power
The problem with François Legault’s autonomy is twofold. Not only does it not lead to any significant gain, but it perpetuates a sort of vulnerability of Quebec by locking us into political struggles where we have no leverage. These negotiations are essential for the CAQ, because they have a symbolic function which allows it to present itself as the government in defense of Quebec.
However, if this autonomist gives the impression that the CAQ protects Quebec interests in the federation, the reality is rather that this confrontation-spectacle masks a constant deterioration of Quebec’s balance of power. Indeed, each time the Legault government suffers a failure, it is the Quebec government that takes a blow. Now, make no mistake, the last governments have not further improved Quebec’s balance of power. The advantage, however, was that they did not give the illusion that this was the case.
The symbolic nature of the CAQ’s struggles is all the more apparent when it evokes the possibility of organizing sectoral referendums, as was the case after the episode of health transfers last year or more recently in relation to to immigration. We can only be dismayed by this watered-down conception, to say the least, that the CAQ has of Quebec power. As if political freedom were an à la carte package. However, perhaps after two CAQ mandates locking us in a perpetual position of weakness, Quebec will seek to get out of this autonomist impasse and will regain the taste to aspire to real political freedom.