To help vulnerable nations cope with increasing droughts, floods or heat waves linked to climate change, the billions of dollars on the table at COP26 will not be enough. Trillions of dollars will be needed, according to a draft report obtained by AFP.
The failure of rich countries to keep their promise to increase their climate aid to poor countries to $ 100 billion per year from 2020 is one of the most explosive disputes of the climate conference which is coming to an end.
And yet, this envelope would only represent a simple down payment against the real cost of adaptation to the devastating impacts of global warming, according to a draft report by the UN climate experts (IPCC) to be published in early 2022. .
Flooded cities, food shortages, deadly heat waves, mass migration … “The costs of adaptation are considerably higher than previously estimated”, according to the summary of the text of 4000 pages. “The existing provisions to finance adaptation are inadequate given the anticipated magnitude of climate impacts”.
The planet has gained around 1.1 ° C since the pre-industrial era, already causing an increase in extreme weather events.
And in the current state of government commitments, the world is heading towards a warming exceeding the objectives of the Paris agreement to limit this temperature rise “well below” 2 ° C, if possible 1.5 ° C .
However, the higher the temperature, the more the costs to protect society increase, warns the IPCC.
According to the draft report, by 2050, the financing needed for adaptation could reach 1 trillion dollars per year in certain emission scenarios. In a + 2 ° C world, adaptation costs for Africa alone could increase by “tens of billions” each year.
“Completely outdated”
This IPCC report, of which AFP has obtained a preliminary version, is devoted to the impacts of global warming. Many scientists, including some of its authors, regretted that it was not published in time for the crucial COP26.
In the meantime, experts and diplomats have started to assess the needs, far greater than the 100 billion intended both to help countries reduce their emissions and adapt to the impacts of global warming.
This promise which seemed significant in 2009 “is completely exceeded”, by science and by reality on the ground, indicates to AFP Rachel Cleetus, economist of the group Union of Concerned Scientists. “When we talk about finance for after 2025, it must be in the trillions”.
“Adaptation is a huge blind spot in the climate emergency,” says Mohamed Adow of the Power Shift Africa think tank.
Avoided costs
The urgent need to protect oneself from the impacts of climate change, which will be major even with + 1.5 ° C, is largely highlighted by the IPCC draft report which also anticipates the costs of damage for each sector of society.
In Guangzhou, in southern China, with an additional rise of 20 cm in sea level, damage could exceed 250 billion each year, without adaptation measures such as anti-submersion infrastructure. But in a world at + 2 ° C, the ocean level should rise twice as much.
Other coastal cities like Bombay could be victims of disasters of a similar magnitude.
On average, floods will displace 2.7 million people each year in Africa by the middle of the century, harvests will decrease in quantity and quality, increasing the risks of generalized malnutrition, heat waves will weigh on health systems.
So financing adaptation is like an investment to avoid future costs, according to the draft report.
For example, spending $ 1.8 trillion over the next decade to deploy early warning systems, resilient infrastructure and agriculture, to restore mangroves and improve access to water “can generate a net benefit of 7,200 billion ”.
“Investing in climate adaptation is a bit like insuring against an event that is bound to happen,” comments Brian O’Callaghan, a researcher at the University of Oxford.
“Need shelter”
Mohamed Adow and others called for a special IPCC report to quantify global adaptation needs.
“We need as objective an assessment as possible of the costs of both adaptation and emission reduction,” argues Max Puig, chief negotiator for the Dominican Republic.
A few days ago, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) estimated that the needs to finance adaptation could rise to 300 billion per year in 2030, and 500 billion by 2050.
During COP26, the Africa group, supported by emerging economies like China and India, called on developed countries to mobilize at least 650 billion per year just for adaptation, from 2030.
In parallel, Fiji and other island states have proposed a floor twice as low but from 2025, told AFP its Minister of Economy and Climate Change Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, calling on rich countries to recognize the urgency.
“When you build a house, you can’t build just one wall per decade, and hope that it serves as a shelter. We need shelter now ”.