Transport electrification | An insufficient shift to limit global warming

Global sales of electric vehicles doubled in 2021, but this is far from enough, estimates Greenpeace, which has just unveiled a report on the efforts of major car manufacturers towards the electrification of transport. Because despite the growing popularity of zero-emission vehicles, sales of gas-powered SUVs are accelerating everywhere on the planet, which compromises the chances of meeting the targets of the Paris agreement.

Eric-Pierre Champagne
The Press

Sales on the rise

Sales of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) saw a sharp increase in 2021, rising in one year from just over 2 million to 4.6 million units sold. ZEV’s market share thus increased from 2.66% to 5.75%, the largest increase in 10 years. In China, electric cars accounted for 11% of sales in 2021. Even Europe did no better as 6% of new vehicles in 2021 were electric-powered. Despite these sales successes, 99% of the world’s car fleet is still made up of gasoline-powered vehicles, reports the report entitled Auto Environmental Guide 2022prepared by Greenpeace Asia.

Thanks to China

“Major automakers have leaned heavily on the Chinese market to boost sales of electric vehicles,” the Greenpeace report notes. Without China, the portrait would indeed be very different on a global scale. For example, General Motors (GM) sold 96% of its electric cars in China. It is expected that 40% of cars sold in the Chinese market in 2030 will be electric. Remember that Chinese leaders have adopted very strict rules in order to force manufacturers to accelerate their electric transition. Last April, an analysis from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) stated in particular that “this decision will have a huge impact on the global manufacturing of electric vehicles. This is one of the strongest pieces of legislation for electric cars in the world and it is imposed on the biggest car market in the world. »

The 1.5℃ target compromised

Greenpeace specifies that none of the 10 major manufacturers exceeds 9% of its sales in terms of electric vehicles. “The world’s largest automakers are not moving away from fossil fuels at a sufficient rate to ensure the Earth stays within a global average annual temperature rise of 1.5℃,” it says. Manufacturers should stop selling petrol vehicles in Europe by 2028 and in other major markets by 2030, the report recommends.

SUVs are still popular

Globally, gas-powered SUV sales continue to rise despite the climate emergency, Greenpeace points out. In 2021, almost one in two new vehicles (46%) was an SUV, up 4% from 2020 (42%). For Patrick Bonin, head of the Climate-Energy campaign at Greenpeace Canada, it is absolutely necessary that Canada and Quebec bring forward to 2030 their regulations prohibiting the sale of gasoline cars scheduled for 2035. “It has to happen before 2035 if we want to give ourselves a chance to respect the Paris agreement [limiter le réchauffement à 1,5 ℃] “, he says. One of the solutions, according to him, would be to impose a tax on the purchase of the most energy-intensive vehicles. But at the same time, governments must force manufacturers to offer more electric cars to consumers. “We see it, in the legislation where there are ambitious objectives, this is where we find the most electric vehicles. »

GM at the top of the charts

In terms of energy transition, GM tops the list compiled by Greenpeace, followed by Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen. The three Japanese manufacturers Nissan, Honda and Toyota occupy the last three places. “Who would have thought, 10 years ago, that the latecomers would be the Japanese? says Daniel Breton, President of Electric Mobility Canada. The former Quebec Minister of the Environment also believes that a strengthening of zero emission standards is necessary in the country in order to force manufacturers to offer their electric models to Canadian consumers. “Waiting times vary between six months and three years. Consumers are trapped! »

A critical report

For his part, Pierre-Olivier Pineau, holder of the Chair of Energy Sector Management at HEC Montreal, is quite critical of the Greenpeace report. “These kind of industry best practice awards glorify the best companies, while the real solutions to carbon neutrality come through far fewer vehicles. If Greenpeace indicates it in its report, Mr. Pineau stresses that the industry should not be expected to make this change. “These changes require individuals and governments to change the rules, much more than industries to change their practices, although they will also have to. »