Tramway and 3rd link: a failure for Quebec

Making something new out of something old, while achieving a budgetary miracle of biblical caliber.

This is a bit, a lot, the mandate that the Legault government gave to the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) on Monday.

Two weeks after taking the tramway project out of the hands of Mayor Bruno Marchand’s administration and entrusting it to the CDPQ, Quebec added a new dose of thrill to the file. The Caisse will also have to propose, within six months, a “structuring” solution which will include a link to the South Shore – the pure and simple resurrection of the famous “third link”.

To summarize: the entire mobility needs of the national capital will have to be resolved by the Fund by next June, while these files have been procrastinating, dying and rising from the ashes for decades.

All at a price acceptable to the government and with a mode of transportation that will appeal to the citizens of Quebec.

Gigantic (and surprising) order.

If this is not an admission of failure on the part of the Legault government, it comes very close.

The Minister of Transport and Sustainable Mobility, Geneviève Guilbault, gave us a long interview on Monday in her offices in Quebec to take stock of these issues. She bluntly recognizes that her department no longer has the expertise required to carry out major public transportation projects.

Geneviève Guilbault seems convinced: CDPQ Infra, the Caisse subsidiary which is piloting the Réseau express métropolitain (REM) project in Montreal, is best placed to offer a transport solution in the capital.

Far from seeing this choice as an acknowledgment of failure, unlike many, the minister believes that it is more a matter of “realism”, “lucidity” and “common sense”. She recalls that the REM project is estimated at around $8 billion, for a 67-kilometer light rail network, in comparison with an equivalent bill for the 19 kilometers of the Quebec City tramway.

” Yes, [le REM] There have been delivery delays, cost increases, and there are breakdowns, but it still works, she says. And when it’s in service, in the long term, it’s going to be a great, really structuring transport project, with all the drawdown [des autobus] planned accordingly. »

The minister recalls that the REM is the only major public transport project to have seen the light of day in recent decades in Quebec, and she is right. Despite the delays and several problems, the speed and scale of this project remain undeniable.

But the Legault government demonstrates at the same time a great inconsistency, considering that it withdrew from the Caisse the mandate to carry out the REM de l’Est, no later than May 2022. At the heart of this decision was the lack of social acceptability of this second phase of the REM, which would disfigure several neighborhoods with its heavy concrete structures¹.

The mandate recently given to the Fund in the capital raises a whole host of other questions.

Among the main pitfalls is the independence of the institution, which must manage the nest egg of Quebecers – more than 424 billion – without any interference from the government, by virtue of its constituting law. Will the Caisse’s managers feel undue pressure to propose a project at all costs?

There is also the issue of potential conflicts of interest.

The Caisse owns several lands which could be the subject of development, along a possible transport network. Will it favor its own real estate interests to the detriment of those of the citizens of Quebec? And will it choose as a priority suppliers in which it is a shareholder, to build a possible network?

Also, and above all: can CDPQ Infra really reinvent the wheel?

The group will carry out its analysis of the “structuring” project in light of the numerous studies already carried out in recent years. The conclusions of these reports are clear, for example regarding the insufficient ridership of a third link between Quebec and Lévis.

Everyone, me first and foremost, will be curious to see the solution that will be proposed by the Fund next June – if there is a solution.

Officially, discussions between the Legault government and the Caisse began very recently, on October 29. Sources at the CDPQ confirmed to me that they learned about the same time as the media about the extent of the mandate that would be entrusted to them.

Everything is on the table at the moment in this matter.

It is not certain that the Caisse would suggest an elevated automated train similar to the REM for the capital. It could also be a tram or rapid bus network; nothing is stopped.

It is also not certain that CDPQ Infra would propose a “turnkey” project to the government. The group might want to build part of the network – in this case the public transport component – ​​and only submit potential solutions for the link to the South Shore.

According to my information, the Caisse sent around a hundred invitations on Monday to various “stakeholders” in the Quebec region, to solicit their opinion on a possible project. The objective: to avoid the collapse of the Eastern REM by consulting massively upstream.

There are a lot of “ifs” in this whole equation. It is possible that the Caisse will propose a solution that will simply be too expensive – which would give the Legault government a definitive argument to close these files in the capital, without bearing the odiousness.

To return to Geneviève Guilbault, she does not accept the status quo in carrying out major projects. She still plans to table a bill at the beginning of 2024 to create an agency that would take over the management of public transport projects, outside her ministry, with a view to increasing efficiency and reducing costs.

In this sense, the new mandate given to the CDPQ could be seen as a form of laboratory, or pilot project, even if the minister does not describe it that way.

She says she’s “can’t wait” to see results, and she’s far from alone.