Post-election polls reveal a notable decline in support for the Union, raising concerns about their ability to fulfill key promises as they prepare for governance. Despite Friedrich Merz’s attempts to address financial issues, skepticism persists regarding funding allocation and coalition dynamics. Voter dissatisfaction is rising, benefiting radical parties like the AfD. Merz must regain credibility by addressing migration and economic policies while navigating complex coalition negotiations with the SPD, risking support from both moderate and extreme factions.
Union’s Poll Struggles and the Challenges Ahead
Post-election poll numbers are showing a significant decline for the Union, leaving party researcher Uwe Jun to suggest that the party is in a challenging position as it prepares to assume government responsibilities. Can they deliver on their key promises?
Interviewer: Friedrich Merz has made attempts to justify the two debt packages in the Bundestag, but why is the Union seeing a drop in poll support?
Jun: While Merz indicated openness to discussions around the debt brake during the televised debate with Olaf Scholz, the CDU/CSU’s election platform asserts that the debt brake should remain unchanged as stated in the Basic Law.
In conservative circles, an increase in the defense budget is viewed as a necessary move, unlike the infrastructure package. There’s skepticism among voters regarding whether funds will be allocated solely for investments, as there are concerns that regular state expenses may also be funded from these resources. Many fear that the SPD will dominate coalition discussions, leaving social budgets untouched while diverting funds from the infrastructure plan.
Interviewer: Voters must have anticipated that Merz would not govern independently, but rather in a coalition—likely with the SPD.
Jun: Most citizens were already aware that either a Black-Red or Black-Green coalition was imminent post-election. However, the scale of the financial commitments is astonishing. We are discussing a staggering 500 billion euros, even if spread over twelve years, leading to the perception that Social Democracy has largely triumphed, with the Christian Democrats appearing to concede too quickly.
Unusual Poll Movements and Rising Dissent
Interviewer: The coalition negotiations are still ongoing, yet voter surveys are shifting. Is this a unique situation compared to past government formations?
Jun: It’s indeed rare to see a leading party experience significant support loss right from the outset. Typically, governments lose popularity over time, a trend observed not just in Germany but across Europe. The timing of this decline is surprising, especially since the potential government hasn’t even been formally established yet.
General dissatisfaction with politics has risen, with more radical parties capitalizing on this sentiment and resonating with a growing number of voters.
Most citizens expect a Black-Red coalition’s formation; however, the Union is losing traction in polling.
Interviewer: Does this imply that the AfD’s rise in poll numbers is almost inevitable?
Jun: The AfD stands to gain the most as it channels public protest and dissatisfaction. The Left also managed to tap into this during the Bundestag election campaign.
Interviewer: How can a potential Chancellor Merz escape this downward trend? He will, like any government, need to implement further burdens.
Jun: Merz and the prospective federal government have one opportunity: to showcase successes in key areas that resonate with voters. Migration and economic policies are critical, especially for conservative voters leaning towards the AfD. Merz must restore his already weakened credibility and offer tangible solutions to everyday challenges, demonstrating improvements in citizens’ lives.
Business organizations are urging the Union and SPD to prioritize reforms during coalition talks.
Interviewer: The SPD also aims to govern, which means they must convince their members to accept some burdens to ensure a stable center government against the AfD?
Jun: It seems that Lars Klingbeil has recognized the gravity of the situation, showing a readiness to compromise in his initial remarks. However, he must also negotiate a coalition agreement that resonates with a majority of his SPD members. This creates a complex dynamic for SPD negotiators.
Interviewer: This is something future Chancellor Merz must also consider, correct?
Jun: Both parties risk losing support from their more extreme factions. The CDU could face approval declines and defections to the AfD, as well as potential losses to non-voters if Merz appears overly conciliatory towards the SPD. There may also be opportunities for a reinvigorated FDP.
Germany faces a systemic issue; achieving a complete government overhaul is challenging. Typically, there are centrist coalitions reliant on compromise, which often leaves their voter base dissatisfied with the results.
The election has created a new political landscape, and political scientist Münch will provide insights into how these changes should be interpreted.
Interviewer: Was Merz misguided in promising a genuine political shift that may not be feasible?
Jun: Merz has made numerous promises that he cannot fulfill to the extent required with the SPD as a coalition partner. A complete overhaul would have necessitated a different coalition with aligned political views. Instead, we have two parties from differing political backgrounds attempting to chart a common course.
Interviewer: Economists in Germany argue that the Black-Red coalition must pursue fundamental structural and state reforms. Is that a realistic expectation?
Jun: The traffic light coalition has already positioned itself as a progressive body aiming to address the backlog of reforms. However, the understanding of these reforms differs between the Greens and SPD on one side, and the FDP on the other. This discrepancy highlights the challenge in crafting a unified proposal that satisfies all parties and meets the high expectations that many hold. This task is almost monumental.
The discussion was led by Corinna Emundts.