More than 3,600 patients are still in intensive care in France, the Covid-19 epidemic is therefore not yet over. But some indicators show that the health situation is improving.
1The incidence rate
At the national level, there are 2,626 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The incidence rate therefore remains very high, but it is falling in all age groups and in all departments. In detail, it decreases more markedly in Île-de-France, in the Alps and in the South-East, it is a little more timid on the Atlantic coast.
There is only one downside to these figures: intensive care admissions and the number of deaths are still not falling. There are still, unfortunately, more than 280 deaths per day on average in hospital.
2The reproduction rate of the virus
Other good news: the reproduction rate of the virus, the R0, has fallen below 1. This figure means that an infected person now contaminates 0.9 on average at the national level. The improvement is not the same in all departments, but the situation has been globally unprecedented since the end of August or mid-October 2021.
3The research is progressing
The Imagine Institute in Paris (Institute of Genetic Diseases) is now involved in research into the genetic origins of severe cases of Covid-19. Because several international publications have confirmed it since September 2020: 25% of severe forms of the disease are explained by genetic and immunological causes.
Due to a particular genetic mutation, some patients are unable, for example, to effectively activate what are called “interferons”. However, they are essential molecules to trigger the body’s defense reaction in the event of an attack by a virus.
In these people, the virus can replicate, infect other cells and several days later, the immune system goes into overdrive and the state of health deteriorates. Knowing about these mutations should make it possible in the long term to better identify people at risk of a severe form and to develop new personalized treatments for this category of patients.