“This is the first time that there are two important candidates on the right of the right”, analyzes political scientist Erwan Lecoeur

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“We have two heavyweights that balance each other sociologically, politically and in the media”said Erwan Lecoeur, sociologist and political scientist, specialist in the far right and ecology, this Monday on franceinfo, while the latest Ipsos Sopra-Steria poll for franceinfo and Le Parisien Today-in-France gives Éric Zemmour and Marine Le Pen tied, with 14% of voting intentions each. “It’s the first time that there are really two important candidates on the right of the right”he addedbecause in the duel Le Pen – Mégret in the 90s, “there was one who took precedence over the other, embodying the only possibility for these voters”. And especially, “this time it’s something like ‘it would be possible’, ‘they will finally win'”.

In this Le Pen – Zemmour match, the sociologist gives the advantage to the candidate of the National Rally, who “is still in the lead in the race”and who would have “a priori” a greater reserve of votes among the abstainers. Advantage also in terms of image: Éric Zemmour “is very strong in the media” because “he has the Bolloré group behind him” corn “he cleaves a lot more” in “doing Le Pen father” estimated Erwan Lecoeur, while Marine Le Pen “has refocused, calmed down, presidentialized” and could, insofar as it reached the second round, “to recover the disappointed people, the pissed off, angry people who are behind Éric Zemmour”.

“For the moment, it is Marine Le Pen who has won the bet of widening her electorate with women, young people, the rather popular classes and she can still possibly continue to widen it”analyzed the sociologist, while “the only possibility” enlargement of Éric Zemmour “It’s to look for Valérie Pécresse and Éric Ciotti on the right side”. According to Erwan Lecoeur, Marine Le Pen has among its objectives that of “to make Éric Zemmour more disturbing than her”Which allows it “to refocus to become presidential”. “She nevertheless put outside the National Front a certain number of radicals, traditional Catholics, identitarians” to pick up “the electorate neither-nist, neither right nor left, French first”but also “more women” and “homosexuals”to take a “more populist posture than right-wing nationalist.”

According to him, “we have the impression of finding ourselves a little before April 21, 2002 with Jean-Marie Le Pen, at the level of abstention, of the configuration, of the Le Pen / Mégret distinction which, at the time, agitated the campaign and the fact that violence, insecurity, are on all television channels”with the exception that Jean-Marie Le Pen has “embodied the possibility of victory”there where “Marine Le Pen, she wants power”. Furthermore, Éric Zemmour’s candidacy tends “to normalize” Marine Le Pen, considering that Éric Zemmour is perhaps “the best thing that could happen to her, if she makes it to the second round”.

While she has been more offensive with Éric Zemmour lately, accusing him of having “a few nazis” within his movement, Erwan Lecoeur considered that Marine Le Pen “does exactly what was done with Bruno Mégret [qui avait claqué la porte du FN en 1998 avant de se présenter à l’élection présidentielle de 2002]”.

“She understood that this campaign was going to be played in a media way, so she gives substance to a saga, the Le Pen saga, which attracted us enormously for 20-30 years with Jean-Marie, then Marie-Caroline, the traitor, then Marine, the new monster but kinder.”

Erwan Lecoeur, sociologist

at franceinfo

According to him, “the Zemmour saga succeeded in agitating the campaign, the media are fond of it, so Marine Le Pen knows that she must regain control in terms of media narrative by telling the story of everyone abandoning me, they are traitors and you are the faithful”in particular with reference to the fact that her niece, Marion Maréchal Le Pen, made it known that she would not vote for her.

As for the divergences of priority themes between the two candidates, Erwan Lecoeur found “hallucinating” than Eric Zemmour “talk about things the French don’t care about”. According to the sociologist, “the subjects of concern of the French are health, inequalities and the climate crisis” and not Islam and insecurity: “Éric Zemmour works on fears, anxieties and frustrations (…) because it is easier to exploit these fears, but nevertheless these are not the main concerns of the French.”


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