The war in Ukraine, with its share of concerns and its effects on the price of oil, casts a shadow over the travel industry, which finally seemed to have the wind in its sails after yet another slowdown caused in December by the Omicron variant.
Posted at 1:21 p.m.
Cruise lines were the first to respond to the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the end of February, quickly revising their itineraries in Europe’s Baltic Sea. “They no longer go to Saint Petersburg, Russia, a magnificent city which is a major stopover for this type of cruise,” says Guy Bergeron, owner of the agency Croisières pour tous.
“We had a group departure scheduled for June which was canceled due to the situation,” adds Mr. Bergeron. Without a stopover in St. Petersburg, a Baltic cruise is not worth it. »
The conflict in Ukraine, which has monopolized the screens since the end of February, is giving “bad press” to all of Europe, believes Guy Bergeron. For many travelers, this war “puts a brake” on their holiday plans on the Old Continent, even if most of them thought of going to Western Europe, hundreds of kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
“People are wondering if it’s the right time to go to Europe,” also observes Nicolas Ryan, spokesperson for CAA-Quebec, which owns a major travel agency. They prefer to wait a little bit before making a full reservation to see if the conflict will move to another country, for example. »
In a report earlier this week, travel app Hopper noted that “searches for return flights from the United States to Europe are down an average of 9% from forecast levels. This phenomenon is not seasonal and is not observed for flights to other regions. »
For now, Air Transat has not observed any negative impact on its reservations in Europe, said Thursday Annick Guérard, President and Chief Executive Officer of the carrier, on the occasion of the presentation of the results for the first quarter of the year. Since the announcement of the easing of travel restrictions in mid-February, bookings have been on the rise, explained Mr.me Guerard.
PHOTO ADONIS SKORDILIS, REUTERS
Corfu, Greece. The conflict in Ukraine is giving “bad press” to all of Europe, believes Guy Bergeron, of the agency Croisières pour tous.
The price of oil, which has reached almost record levels since the start of the war, is of greater concern to Air Transat, which may have to adjust its prices in the coming weeks.
“Air carriers calculate their ticket prices based on a number of factors other than the cost of fuel: competition, demand, marketing elements and the type of traffic served by a given route”, explains for his part, in writing, Pascale Déry, Director, Media Relations at Air Canada. The constant price fluctuations cannot be attributed to any particular cause, she adds.
For his part, Hopper sees a 16% increase in ticket prices between the United States and Europe between the first week of February and March. However, “in 2019, air fares to Europe remained at the same level over this period”, explains the company. In his report, the economist Adit Damodaran nevertheless specifies: “the war between Russia and Ukraine has no immediate impact on kerosene prices. »
For flights to Asia, however, another factor could cause price increases: Russian, Belarusian and Ukrainian airspace being closed, carriers will have no choice but to extend certain routes, and pass the bill on to consumers.
A great thirst for travel
PHOTO MICHELE SPATARI, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
“It’s been two years since travelers put aside $100 per paycheck, their bank is starting to be quite full. Maybe they’ll finally go on the safari in South Africa that they’ve always dreamed of…”, says Nicolas Ryan, spokesperson for CAA-Quebec.
If the situation in Ukraine seems to dampen the enthusiasm of some travelers for Europe, the appetite for stays abroad is undeniable after long months of pandemic… even if it means heading for other destinations.
“When you get close to an incident, there is a concern that is created, remarks Nicolas Ryan, of CAA-Quebec. Maybe someone who was thinking of going to Spain will prefer to go to Mexico, Costa Rica, Peru or Brazil, for example. »
The West Indies and Central America indeed seem to be benefiting from the situation, according to Hopper, who has seen bookings for these destinations grow since mid-February.
“What we also see a lot are the famous bucket list trips,” concludes Mr. Ryan. It’s been two years since travelers put aside $100 per paycheck, their bank is starting to get pretty full. Maybe they’ll finally go on the South African safari they’ve always dreamed of…”