the victory of the Democratic favorite could have a bitter taste

Saturday January 13 will take place the presidential election in Taiwan. While Beijing officially denies any involvement in the campaign which is ending, the threat of war with China has particularly opposed the three main candidates. Our correspondents describe the situation on site.

The Taiwanese will elect their new president on Saturday January 13, as well as their deputies. This election is crucial for the archipelago threatened with invasion by China. Two main parties oppose each other: the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and the opposition party favorable to Beijing, the Chinese Nationalist Party. The question of the relationship with China was at the heart of the debates and the three main candidates were torn on the subject with one question in mind: how to avoid a future conflict with Xi Jinping?

With more than 90% of Taiwanese opposed to Chinese annexation, the favorite in the polls is the vice president Lai Ching-te, better known as William Lai. He defends a firm position in the face of Beijing’s demands. His party, the Democratic Progressive Party, wants to strengthen Taiwan’s military defense and reduce the dependence of the Taiwanese economy on the Chinese market. “If we are too weak, then China will invade us”explained a party representative on Thursday, during the largest meeting of the campaign.

“This election is a choice between war and peace”

Opposite, the Chinese Nationalist Party criticizes a position which, according to it, will lead to war. For this opposition party, it is the Taiwanese government which bears responsibility for the tensions and in particular for Chinese military maneuvers, which have become more and more frequent in recent years. “This election is a choice between war and peace”, keeps repeating its candidate, the former police officer Hou Yu-ih. The latter therefore proposes to recognize the theoretical belonging of Taiwan to China, a concession which according to him would make it possible to ease tensions and ultimately avoid a conflict. Unsurprisingly, the proposal is supported by Beijing which, according to the Taiwanese government, would try to influence the vote in particular through the massive dissemination of false information.

Despite everything, the Chinese Nationalist Party remains unpopular among Taiwanese, more than 90% of whom are opposed to Chinese annexation. Young people in particular no longer trust China since Beijing’s authoritarian takeover of Hong Kong. As for the third candidate, who burst into the campaign, the outsider Ko Wen-je, his positioning focused on domestic reforms, housing prices, low wages… These questions also worry Taiwanese youth, but on China, the candidate remains deliberately ambiguous.

A mixed victory in sight

In the latest polls, Democratic Progressive Party candidate William Lai was in the lead. Some think that the chips are down and that, barring any surprises, he will be elected president on Saturday, January 13. But this victory could have a bitter taste. In the home stretch, the opposition is trying to mobilize on issues unrelated to China, such as corruption or energy policy. This strategy should bear fruit at least in the legislative elections, where the ruling party is expected to lose its majority. The future Taiwanese president will therefore have to deal with a divided assembly. An additional difficulty in the face of threats from Beijing.

China, which is regularly accused by Taipei, is suspected of wanting to interfere in these elections in several ways. The Chinese authorities reacted to these accusations with a formal denial. Just a few days ago, Wu Qian, the spokesperson for the Beijing Defense Ministry, said that “No, China does not interfere in Taiwan’s electoral process.” Indeed, in recent days, the official Chinese press has been very discreet about the event, which could suggest that China is not trying to influence the vote.

Discreet pressure from China

But there is still a declaration which, in Taiwan, has not escaped anyone. At the end of December 2023 in Beijing, a former number 2 of the Taiwanese affairs office in China spoke at a conference. He said that if William Lai were to win the vote, there was clearly a risk of war. A fairly clear and assertive way of putting pressure on voters if they want to guarantee peace on the island.

In recent weeks, some Chinese state media have also suggested that if the DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) is reappointed as president, new economic sanctions against Taiwan could fall, with additional restrictions on imports of Taiwanese goods. in China.

Shows of force

Beyond words, Beijing has also shown its strength to exert pressure before the presidential election. For several months, China has regularly deployed its military force in the Taiwan Strait, by sending fighter planes, which according to Taipei crossed the median line of the strait again a few days ago. Beijing is also mobilizing reconnaissance drones and also deploying its warships. A few days ago, Chinese television showed images of the new aircraft carrier Fujian, almost completed, and a series of Chinese spy balloons have been flying over Taiwanese territory since last month. A presence described by Taipei as psychological warfare to try to influence the presidential election.