the Ukrainian army’s counter-offensive is “an opportunity not to be missed”, says a researcher in conflicts and international security

The Ukrainian army’s counter-offensive is “an opportunity not to be missed”believes Julien Théron, political researcher and teacher in conflicts and international security at Sciences Po. Ukraine announced on Sunday the reconquest of three villages in the eastern region of Donetsk. “It’s a counter-offensive in a more strategic than tactical sense”analyzes the co-author of the “Autocrats Pact – How They Unite to Destroy Our Democracies” published by Robert-Laffont.

For the moment, the counter-offensive consists of very small victories for the Ukrainian army?

Yes, because we have been talking about this counter-offensive for several months and the Russians have built extremely strong defenses. There is also another possibility: the Ukrainians are trying to mobilize the reserves from the rear of the Russians in order to push them to the front and create breakthroughs in places which would already be identified or which, more opportunistically, would be more discovered. But it is hardly surprising that in the early days of such a counter-offensive, there is no major breakthrough. It is a counter-offensive in the strategic sense, more than tactical.

Is the Ukrainian army playing its game there?

His “go-everything” may be saying a lot, but it is indeed an opportunity not to be missed. The Ukrainians succeeded in obtaining a certain number of materials with a lot of negotiation efforts with the West, mainly armored materials, but also drones. The use of equipment in this offensive must create a difference vis-à-vis the Russian forces. It would be good, after a year and a half of high-intensity fighting, to make major progress. There is a reason why this is necessary, it is that public opinion, especially in the West, gets tired quickly – faster than public opinion in Ukraine, which is gambling its existence. This is to avoid having to ask Westerners for weapons for a long time to come.

Does the proliferation of offers of mediation and negotiation increase the pressure on the Ukrainians?

Yes, it’s difficult to fight when you don’t have the means to fight and to have to ask your partners for these means. These partners are themselves subject to other political agendas and to popular pressure and pressure from the opposition, so it is not very easy to always ask for arms. What you have to understand is that we don’t give arms to Ukraine because it’s nice or because we’re generous. We give arms to Ukraine because it contains Russia, which would go much further, including in Western countries, in terms of destabilization if necessary.