“For one job created in the 100% electric car sector, there will be two jobs destroyed”, added Monday on franceinfo the director of the Cetelem observatory, Flavien Neuvy, before a meeting of European ministers opposed to the end of the sale. new combustion engine vehicles.
“For one job created in the 100% electric car sector, there will be two jobs destroyed” in the thermal car sector, estimates Monday, March 13 on franceinfo the economist and director of the Cetelem observatory Flavien Neuvy, while several European ministers recalcitrant at the end of the sale of new thermal engine vehicles in 2035 meet this Monday in Strasbourg. Last week, Germany refused to vote on a text of the 27 EMember States ratifying the ban on the sale of thermal cars from 2035. “The transition to 100% electric will destroy jobs”adds Flavien Neuvy.
>> What hides the record figure of 12.1% of electric cars sold in Europe?
franceinfo: Why does Germany want to save the heat engine?
Flavien Neuvy : Because behind there are employment issues that arise for the entire sector. We know that Germany, like France moreover, is a major country in the automotive industry, with very large manufacturers who employ a lot of people. In Europe, it is estimated that approximately 12 to 13 million jobs are directly affected by the automotive industry among manufacturers, equipment manufacturers, then distribution networks and dealerships.
We know that the transition to 100% electric will destroy jobs. Overall, there are studies that show that for one job created in the 100% electric car sector, there will be two jobs destroyed. We know that it is an industry, the electric car, which needs fewer jobs both among the manufacturers, because these are cars that are easier to assemble, but also among the equipment manufacturers. And in the longer term too, we may have questions about the dealer networks because an electric car requires less maintenance.
The French Minister of the Economy said Monday on franceinfo that this 2035 objective must be met, and said he was ready to “go arm wrestling”. Are French manufacturers ready to meet this 2035 all-electric goal?
French manufacturers, but more generally manufacturers, will sell electric cars, if thermal cars are prohibited. They will somehow adapt. However, they recalled, in particular the boss of Stellantis Carlos Tavares, that the choice of 100% electric could question. In fact, the main issues are twofold: employment with equipment manufacturers, in particular subcontractors who manufacture parts for internal combustion engines. Because there, these are jobs that are difficult to convert to 100% electric. But also our ability to produce batteries in Europe, with the famous Inflation Reduction Act and we can clearly see that there are many gigafactory projects that were planned in Europe, which will be oriented more towards the United States to tax reasons. And then China with Chinese manufacturers of 100% electric cars which are much more efficient today, who want to arrive on the European market.
Berlin is pushing for a proposal that would pave the way for vehicles running on synthetic fuel, including after 2035. What do we know about this “energy-intensive” technology, as NGOs say?
It is under development. It’s not operational, it’s tested, on a small scale. The challenge is to be able to do this on a large scale and under effective environmental conditions. What is complicated is that we are making decisions today by 2035, so in twelve years, it’s short term. We imagine that the best technical and environmental solution will be 100% electric. However, technical progress is still going quite quickly and it is difficult to know precisely which technology will be the most efficient from an environmental and economic point of view. So that’s also why, in my opinion, the Germans are stepping up to give manufacturers some time to see if there isn’t a solution that could also be acceptable from an environmental point of view.
We are talking about the ban on the sale of new cars. But what consequences would this have on the second-hand market?
We can already see today that the second-hand market has begun to be affected by all this. There has been a recent price hike because there is a shortage of cars linked to the shortage of semiconductors. So the market took advantage of that. But we see that the second-hand market is changing. There is also talk of the entry into force of the ZFEs which mean that certain old cars sell very badly in the places where there are these famous ZFEs. And then in the long term, indeed, thermal cars will have more difficulty finding takers as we approach this deadline of 2035. It is estimated that the extinction of the thermal fleet, that is to say say that the last thermal car that will run, will be able to drive approximately until 2050. So after fifteen years, in 2050, if the 2035 rule is respected, there will be no more thermal cars on the roads in 2050.