The hostage-taking by Hamas in Israel, of an “unprecedented” scale, is a major obstacle for the Jewish state, which aims to “make the terrorist organization pay” and destroy its operational capabilities, analyzes a expert specializing in national and international security issues.
Israel reported that during Hamas’s incursion into its territory on Saturday, its armed fighters captured and brought back to the Gaza Strip some 150 hostages, in addition to killing at least 900 people in attacks on several fronts.
This hostage-taking is “a big problem in a multiplicity of problems” that the Jewish state is currently facing in its response to the terrorist attack, believes David Morin, professor of political science at the University of Sherbrooke who specializes in in national and international security issues.
The hostage-taking has several objectives, he indicates.
But the primary operational goal is always to limit the adversary’s field of action, indicated professor of international relations at the Canadian Forces College and member of the Middle East Observatory of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair Miloud Chennoufi. . So far, this goal does not seem to have been effective to any extent, as the IDF has been shelling Gaza continuously for two days, he notes.
But it is because in the immediate future, the Israeli government is making calculations, continues Professor Morin: it will prefer to respond by force because there have already been nearly a thousand civilians killed in Israel. But in the medium term, hostages across the border could effectively serve as human shields and slow Israel’s bombardment, he said. As Hamas has taken care to disperse the captives in many places, “the risk is obviously to kill hostages involuntarily”.
Moreover, Hamas has other designs: it has clearly stated that if Israel does not stop its air attacks carried out without warning, it will execute hostages. “It’s a threat that must be taken very seriously,” explains Mr. Morin.
Israel thus warned the population of Gaza to leave before its strikes, indicates Professor Chennoufi: “But they have nowhere to go,” adds the expert.
Negotiate release
Hostages are also used to negotiate prisoner exchanges.
If we often hear heads of state proclaim loudly and clearly that they do not intend to “negotiate with terrorists”, the reality is quite different, according to David Morin. “This is probably one of the most empty phrases in international politics”: States negotiate all the time, perhaps not by offering ransoms in hard cash, but there is always negotiation.
Moreover, after keeping an Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, in captivity for five years, Hamas finally made significant gains: more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners were released in 2011 by Israel, which thus set the bar very high for its prisoner ratio. Hamas can thus hope to make other gains, particularly if it succeeded in its operation in kidnapping “hostages of high strategic value”, such as well-placed soldiers, underlines Mr. Morin, who is also holder of the UNESCO Chair in preventing radicalization and violent extremism.
Another dimension of the hostage-taking that should not be overlooked, according to him, is its psychological effect on the Israeli population, which lives in a “kind of permanent state of war”. “It’s a small country, everyone was affected” by what just happened, he recalls. The fate of the hostages then becomes a powerful weapon for the terrorist organization that wields it. The Jewish state has in the past deployed considerable resources to recover hostages or even repatriate the bodies of soldiers, he underlines.
The families of the hostages will also put pressure on the Israeli government to negotiate their release, believes Mr. Chennoufi. Such a negotiation will most likely involve regional actors as mediators, such as Turkey, Egypt and Jordan, he analyzes, adding that NGOs can also play a role.
Another factor will complicate the task of the Jewish State: the possible presence of international or binational hostages, who will “internationalize the conflict,” notes Professor Morin. For now, other states have left Israel alone, but if the hostages are still in captivity after the major armed operations, it is possible that they too will apply pressure to bring about their release.
“The images of crimes committed by Hamas are so shocking that they may also [les combattants] are trying to release, with a little publicity, a few civilians to try to balance the image, even if I doubt that this will convince many people. »
Does taking hostages risk prolonging hostilities?
The conflict currently can only get worse, warns Professor Chennoufi, who believes that the only solution – global, which includes the fate of the hostages but is not limited to it – must be negotiated.
“What we have been witnessing for two or three days […] This is the price that everyone is paying, the Palestinians, the Israelis and the international community, for abandoning the peace process of the 1990s,” he concludes.