Seasoned politicians have the ability, like sharks, to smell blood and smell wounds. This fragrance is exhaled when a government or a political leader stumbles and suffers the disenchantment of the population.
And it looks a lot like that in Quebec currently.
It is understood, the government of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is getting bogged down, and the March 19 poll from the Léger firm confirms this again.1.
As we know, the first beneficiary of this quagmire is the Parti Québécois (PQ) of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (PSPP). This is somewhat deserved because the latter has probably been the most decent politician on the provincial scene since the last election.
The return of the sovereignists and the most nationalist to the PQ was quite dazzling. It turned on a dime, friends!
My obligations as a platform manager who knows everything force me to comment on this sudden movement, and, while I’m at it, to ask myself who would have enough nose to aim at the head of the Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ) and check It’s true that damn it can’t lie.
It is not crazy to claim that in addition to benefiting from the steep descent of the CAQ, the PQ also benefits from the weakness of the other opposition parties. An easy one, that one.
And we are in a context where a political party could win with a little more than a third of the votes in the next provincial elections.
As a matter of fact, the Léger firm and the QC125 site believe that with 34% of the votes given to it in this poll, the PQ could form a majority government, essentially because of the 42% portion of the French-speaking vote that it attracts.
PHOTO EDOUARD PLANTE-FRÉCHETTE, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon
And 32% of all Quebecers think that PSPP would make the best prime minister. He is first, by far, in this regard.
Conversely, the PLQ only enjoys 4% of the favor of the French. A misery. Montesquieu would have spoken of a villain drop ! And Marc Tanguay is only considered the leader who would make the best prime minister by his close family, and perhaps a few cousins.
But even with only 14% of the total vote, the PLQ would remain the official opposition in the National Assembly, thanks to the concentration of the English-speaking vote and cultural communities in this party.
As for sovereignty, 36% of all voters would agree with this project, but a quarter of those who would vote for the PQ are not. Boring, though…
Hypothetically, this quarter of non-sovereignists could become available on the electoral market, as would be the federalists who would vote today for the CAQ, or more generally those who are dissatisfied with CAQ management.
When we add it all up, it starts to create potential sensitive customers for the PLQ with a chef who has style!
PSPP swears firmly that in the next elections, it will propose a referendum in the mandate, if it is elected.
But with only 36% of fervent sovereignists currently, the 50% +1 needed to win would be damned difficult to achieve.
And since very big names like Lévesque, Parizeau, Bouchard and Dumont have never managed to reach this level, we wonder how the current leader of the PQ could convince Quebecers. Quebec is not a huge CEGEP after all.
I even know sovereignists who do not want a referendum where the independence project hits the wall again, and the idea is lost forever.
In the meantime, of course, the CAQ could always get out of the mess; the party has plenty of time. But it smells bad…
I wrote it the day after the last elections, I am still convinced that Mr. Legault will step down and will not take part in the next ones.
Her successor could be Minister Geneviève Guilbault.
But let’s just think that, statistically, in the greater Quebec region, no CAQ would be re-elected according to QC125 still, including Mr.me Guilbault in the riding of Louis-Hébert.
Finally, back to the smell of blood and the Liberal Party.
Can we really rule out the possibility that a good French-speaking leader at the head of the PLQ could make up 20-25% of the French vote? One in four to five, we’re not asking for that much.
And PSPP may have become the flavor du jour too soon. It will be difficult for him to remain in office for another two and a half years until the next elections, whereas a new Liberal leader could become this flavor if he was elected to his party 12 or 18 months before the election, and remain so.
Why wouldn’t interesting individuals smell this blood, and believe that in the current political situation there is potential volatility in the electorate, and perhaps an opportunity for the PLQ?
But it would be playable with a leader who has a little freshness, who can defend his country, Canada, with elegance and confidence, and not go hunting for “separatissss” again!
Especially since the PLQ could once again become the party of the economy, by opposing a more endogenous economic development strategy different from that of the CAQ, which invests heavily in helping foreign companies establish here. .
With the solid business base provided by the Anglo vote and that of cultural communities, a Franco liberal leader, with a good CV and a little gab, could surprise.
Between us
Two Italian authors.
Antonio Scurati, with M, The last days of Europe. A historical novel which rather smacks of historical reality, it is so documented. Italian politics between 1938 and 1940, where Mussolini fell into the clutches of Hitler. Fascinating. You will go to bed late!
Paolo Nori, with It’s still bleeding. Here again, a book qualified as a novel, but rather a description of the life of the writer Fyodor Dostoyevsky, where we come across other Russian authors such as Pushkin, Gogol or Turgenev. All of this is close to Nori’s moods. Very good, but you have to like the genre.
1. Consult the most recent Léger survey on voting intentions in Quebec
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