Among our American neighbors, the midterm is described as a gloomy period for the ruling party, which often sees its representation reduced in the House of Representatives, the Senate or even both.
Of course, there have been exceptions, sometimes spectacular ones. On three occasions, midterm elections even allowed the incumbent party to make gains in both houses of Congress. In 2022, Joe Biden’s Democratic Party avoided the feared Trumpist wave by retaining its majority in the Senate, even though the Republicans took control of the House of Representatives.
It is during a second presidential term that things generally tend to go wrong and the midterm blues reached its climax. After six years in the White House, during the six-year itchwhich could be translated as the “six-year crisis”, voters are expressing their weariness more clearly at the ballot box, with effects that can be devastating.
The last two presidents to have enjoyed this longevity, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, suffered very heavy losses in the midterm elections. Bill Clinton, who maintained his gains in the Senate and won five more seats in the House of Representatives in 1998, is an exception, which did not prevent his vice president, Al Gore, from failing in his bid to succeed him.
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In Canada, governments do not have to undergo this kind of scrutiny, except during by-elections, which do not have the same scope as mid-term elections, but the six-year itch It is nonetheless a perilous moment. No matter where it is, voter fatigue is the greatest danger facing a government.
In power since October 2018, the Legault government is at exactly this stage as the National Assembly resumes its work. It should be remembered that no party has managed to obtain three consecutive majority mandates in Quebec since Maurice Duplessis’ Union Nationale, which even won four between 1944 and 1959.
In 2008, Jean Charest had succeeded in regaining a majority after having lost it a year earlier, but this reflected less the confidence he inspired in the population than the mistrust aroused by the inexperience of Mario Dumont’s ADQ team and the instability of PQ leader André Boisclair.
Even with the best will in the world, the Legault government has been around too long to claim to be an agent of change. It can only hope that voters will hesitate to entrust power to those who could embody it.
He would still have to stop giving the impression that he has reached his level of incompetence and that the situation could not be worse if someone else replaced him, whether it be health, education, childcare, the environment or public finances.
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The opposition parties presented the departure of Pierre Fitzgibbon as a blow to the government. The former super-minister of Economy, Innovation and Energy had an undeniable dynamism, but he personified this “arrogance” that he is constantly criticized for.
He himself considered himself above the rules and considered all those who challenged his plans as philistines who knew nothing about economic development. His successor, Christine Fréchette, does not doubt his abilities, but a more modest approach will certainly be beneficial.
Arrogance could even change sides. A parliamentary wing of only four MPs should normally be safe from overconfidence, but the leader of the Parti Québécois (PQ), Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, thought it wise to declare, in an interview with Montreal Journalthat he was already working on forming the team that will ensure the transition after the 2026 victory.
Two years before the election, the PQ’s lead is only six points, almost half of what it was last May, and the debate on sovereignty and the advisability of holding another referendum has not yet truly resumed. It is always unwise to sell the bear’s skin prematurely.
The interim co-spokesperson for Québec solidaire (QS), Christine Labrie, said she hopes that the election of the new female spokesperson will result in a real race rather than the crowning of Ruba Ghazal. Of course, the proverbial debate of ideas is generally desirable, but after the crisis of last spring, QS may need harmony more. Over the next few months, rebuilding party unity will be more important to Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois than shining in the National Assembly.
For two years, the PLQ has been an official opposition in name only, and this will continue until the election of Dominique Anglade’s successor, which will not take place until June 2025. It is still better that the work of the parliamentary wing be eclipsed by the leadership race than by the other parties.